PortfoliosLab logoPortfoliosLab logo
Rick's Black Swan
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


S&P 500 Index

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Rick's Black Swan, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.


Loading graphics...

The earliest data available for this chart is Feb 24, 2012, corresponding to the inception date of GOVT

Returns By Period

As of Apr 3, 2026, the Rick's Black Swan returned 4.27% Year-To-Date and 14.71% of annualized return in the last 10 years.


1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.11%-3.43%-3.84%-1.98%16.08%16.86%10.37%12.29%
Portfolio
Rick's Black Swan
0.15%-2.15%4.27%7.09%26.51%20.93%15.44%14.71%
XAR
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
-0.14%-8.67%7.65%9.12%58.39%30.77%16.06%18.38%
XLV
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
-0.62%-5.95%-4.77%3.39%3.55%5.64%6.45%9.60%
IAK
iShares U.S. Insurance ETF
0.67%-4.42%-4.20%-1.71%-4.72%16.56%13.57%12.13%
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
-1.94%-8.32%8.34%21.05%49.18%32.68%21.72%14.14%
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
0.47%1.46%3.07%4.62%1.27%4.90%5.26%3.13%
GOVT
iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF
0.20%-1.07%0.22%0.69%3.22%2.49%-0.22%0.97%
BIL
SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
0.02%0.31%0.90%1.85%4.01%4.71%3.28%2.13%
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
2.27%13.20%31.17%35.71%33.85%11.56%14.82%10.42%
PSCC
Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples ETF
-0.40%-9.05%0.92%-4.19%-9.78%-3.81%0.21%6.30%
USD
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors
1.08%-1.70%-3.87%-2.71%144.73%92.19%44.90%50.94%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Feb 27, 2012, Rick's Black Swan's average daily return is +0.05%, while the average monthly return is +1.00%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 5.8 years.

Historically, 68% of months were positive and 32% were negative. The best month was Nov 2020 with a return of +9.6%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -8.9%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.

On a daily basis, Rick's Black Swan closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +6.1%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -7.3%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20265.14%1.98%-3.59%0.88%4.27%
20250.70%0.07%-1.64%-1.25%5.29%5.60%2.06%1.15%3.99%2.91%0.10%0.50%20.94%
20242.36%5.25%4.57%-2.48%4.83%1.73%1.63%1.28%0.91%-0.20%3.43%-1.71%23.47%
20235.58%-0.33%3.34%-0.46%1.35%3.99%3.52%-0.63%-3.65%-0.91%5.73%4.84%24.19%
2022-3.94%2.36%2.56%-4.88%0.77%-4.72%4.50%-4.11%-6.59%6.19%6.17%-4.04%-6.75%
20211.23%2.74%1.81%2.06%3.01%1.43%-0.05%1.01%-2.10%4.01%1.53%3.29%21.72%

Benchmark Metrics

Rick's Black Swan has an annualized alpha of 4.43%, beta of 0.63, and R² of 0.83 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since February 27, 2012.

  • This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (72.88%) than losses (59.24%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
  • This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 4.43% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
  • Beta of 0.63 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index — a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.

Alpha
4.43%
Beta
0.63
0.83
Upside Capture
72.88%
Downside Capture
59.24%

Expense Ratio

Rick's Black Swan has an expense ratio of 0.42%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

Rick's Black Swan ranks 89 for risk / return — in the top 89% of portfolios on our site. This means strong returns relative to risk — exactly what professional investors look for. Well-suited for investors who want to maximize return per unit of risk.


Rick's Black Swan Risk / Return Rank: 8989
Overall Rank
Rick's Black Swan Sharpe Ratio Rank: 8989
Sharpe Ratio Rank
Rick's Black Swan Sortino Ratio Rank: 9292
Sortino Ratio Rank
Rick's Black Swan Omega Ratio Rank: 9292
Omega Ratio Rank
Rick's Black Swan Calmar Ratio Rank: 8585
Calmar Ratio Rank
Rick's Black Swan Martin Ratio Rank: 8888
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference

Sharpe ratio

Return per unit of total volatility

2.01

0.88

+1.13

Sortino ratio

Return per unit of downside risk

2.84

1.37

+1.47

Omega ratio

Gain probability vs. loss probability

1.43

1.21

+0.22

Calmar ratio

Return relative to maximum drawdown

3.30

1.39

+1.91

Martin ratio

Return relative to average drawdown

14.78

6.43

+8.35


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Risk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
XAR
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
892.072.751.353.5412.22
XLV
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
160.200.401.050.390.83
IAK
iShares U.S. Insurance ETF
6-0.25-0.220.97-0.40-0.98
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
801.782.211.332.589.32
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
140.170.281.040.150.30
GOVT
iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF
350.801.171.141.213.10
BIL
SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
10019.57254.91180.89367.864,130.10
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
811.802.411.323.168.12
PSCC
Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples ETF
3-0.54-0.690.92-0.62-1.16
USD
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors
881.892.431.344.6512.68

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

Rick's Black Swan Sharpe ratios as of Apr 3, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: 2.01
  • 5-Year: 1.26
  • 10-Year: 1.18
  • All Time: 1.06

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 0.98 to 1.66, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio is in the top 25%. This signifies superior risk-adjusted performance, meaning the portfolio is delivering strong returns for the level of risk taken compared to most others.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of Rick's Black Swan compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


Loading graphics...

Dividends

Dividend yield

Rick's Black Swan provided a 2.08% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio2.08%2.08%2.37%2.41%0.98%0.66%0.84%1.49%1.30%0.78%0.78%0.84%
XAR
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
0.34%0.40%0.66%0.54%0.50%0.83%0.63%0.75%1.19%0.76%1.09%2.31%
XLV
State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF
1.71%1.60%1.67%1.59%1.47%1.33%1.49%2.17%1.57%1.47%1.60%1.43%
IAK
iShares U.S. Insurance ETF
2.75%1.69%1.49%1.44%1.69%2.26%2.07%1.84%2.33%1.62%1.68%1.62%
IAU
iShares Gold Trust
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
UUP
Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund
3.33%3.43%4.48%6.44%0.89%0.00%0.00%2.03%1.08%0.10%0.00%0.00%
GOVT
iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF
3.52%3.49%3.14%2.65%1.77%0.96%2.17%1.98%1.97%1.57%1.40%1.25%
BIL
SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
3.96%4.13%5.03%4.92%1.35%0.00%0.30%2.05%1.66%0.68%0.07%0.00%
DBC
Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund
2.54%3.33%5.22%4.94%0.59%0.00%0.00%1.59%1.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%
PSCC
Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples ETF
2.21%2.35%1.88%1.49%1.29%1.21%1.59%1.77%0.94%1.25%1.48%1.34%
USD
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors
0.48%0.39%0.10%0.05%0.30%0.00%0.14%0.72%0.93%0.32%0.46%0.39%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


Loading graphics...

Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Rick's Black Swan. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the Rick's Black Swan was 22.38%, occurring on Mar 20, 2020. Recovery took 112 trading sessions.

The current Rick's Black Swan drawdown is 3.59%.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-22.38%Feb 20, 202022Mar 20, 2020112Aug 28, 2020134
-15.54%Mar 30, 2022128Sep 30, 2022164May 26, 2023292
-13.15%Oct 4, 201856Dec 24, 201870Apr 5, 2019126
-11.65%Jan 24, 202552Apr 8, 202535May 29, 202587
-11.49%Jun 24, 2015161Feb 11, 201678Jun 3, 2016239

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


Loading graphics...

Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 10 assets, with an effective number of assets of 10.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

BenchmarkBILIAUUUPGOVTDBCPSCCXLVUSDIAKXARPortfolio
Benchmark1.000.010.03-0.15-0.180.290.560.720.750.660.680.88
BIL0.011.000.040.010.020.01-0.02-0.020.02-0.010.010.02
IAU0.030.041.00-0.460.320.280.020.020.02-0.050.040.18
UUP-0.150.01-0.461.00-0.22-0.20-0.10-0.11-0.10-0.07-0.09-0.16
GOVT-0.180.020.32-0.221.00-0.16-0.10-0.10-0.16-0.26-0.14-0.13
DBC0.290.010.28-0.20-0.161.000.150.130.210.220.230.41
PSCC0.56-0.020.02-0.10-0.100.151.000.470.340.530.510.60
XLV0.72-0.020.02-0.11-0.100.130.471.000.440.550.470.62
USD0.750.020.02-0.10-0.160.210.340.441.000.370.500.84
IAK0.66-0.01-0.05-0.07-0.260.220.530.550.371.000.590.62
XAR0.680.010.04-0.09-0.140.230.510.470.500.591.000.74
Portfolio0.880.020.18-0.16-0.130.410.600.620.840.620.741.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Feb 27, 2012