Asset Allocation
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in Rick's Black Swan, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Feb 24, 2012, corresponding to the inception date of GOVT
Returns By Period
As of Apr 3, 2026, the Rick's Black Swan returned 4.27% Year-To-Date and 14.71% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.11% | -3.43% | -3.84% | -1.98% | 16.08% | 16.86% | 10.37% | 12.29% |
Portfolio Rick's Black Swan | 0.15% | -2.15% | 4.27% | 7.09% | 26.51% | 20.93% | 15.44% | 14.71% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
XAR SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF | -0.14% | -8.67% | 7.65% | 9.12% | 58.39% | 30.77% | 16.06% | 18.38% |
XLV State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF | -0.62% | -5.95% | -4.77% | 3.39% | 3.55% | 5.64% | 6.45% | 9.60% |
IAK iShares U.S. Insurance ETF | 0.67% | -4.42% | -4.20% | -1.71% | -4.72% | 16.56% | 13.57% | 12.13% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | -1.94% | -8.32% | 8.34% | 21.05% | 49.18% | 32.68% | 21.72% | 14.14% |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 0.47% | 1.46% | 3.07% | 4.62% | 1.27% | 4.90% | 5.26% | 3.13% |
GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | 0.20% | -1.07% | 0.22% | 0.69% | 3.22% | 2.49% | -0.22% | 0.97% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 0.02% | 0.31% | 0.90% | 1.85% | 4.01% | 4.71% | 3.28% | 2.13% |
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | 2.27% | 13.20% | 31.17% | 35.71% | 33.85% | 11.56% | 14.82% | 10.42% |
PSCC Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples ETF | -0.40% | -9.05% | 0.92% | -4.19% | -9.78% | -3.81% | 0.21% | 6.30% |
USD ProShares Ultra Semiconductors | 1.08% | -1.70% | -3.87% | -2.71% | 144.73% | 92.19% | 44.90% | 50.94% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Feb 27, 2012, Rick's Black Swan's average daily return is +0.05%, while the average monthly return is +1.00%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 5.8 years.
Historically, 68% of months were positive and 32% were negative. The best month was Nov 2020 with a return of +9.6%, while the worst month was Mar 2020 at -8.9%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.
On a daily basis, Rick's Black Swan closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +6.1%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -7.3%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.14% | 1.98% | -3.59% | 0.88% | 4.27% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 0.70% | 0.07% | -1.64% | -1.25% | 5.29% | 5.60% | 2.06% | 1.15% | 3.99% | 2.91% | 0.10% | 0.50% | 20.94% |
| 2024 | 2.36% | 5.25% | 4.57% | -2.48% | 4.83% | 1.73% | 1.63% | 1.28% | 0.91% | -0.20% | 3.43% | -1.71% | 23.47% |
| 2023 | 5.58% | -0.33% | 3.34% | -0.46% | 1.35% | 3.99% | 3.52% | -0.63% | -3.65% | -0.91% | 5.73% | 4.84% | 24.19% |
| 2022 | -3.94% | 2.36% | 2.56% | -4.88% | 0.77% | -4.72% | 4.50% | -4.11% | -6.59% | 6.19% | 6.17% | -4.04% | -6.75% |
| 2021 | 1.23% | 2.74% | 1.81% | 2.06% | 3.01% | 1.43% | -0.05% | 1.01% | -2.10% | 4.01% | 1.53% | 3.29% | 21.72% |
Benchmark Metrics
Rick's Black Swan has an annualized alpha of 4.43%, beta of 0.63, and R² of 0.83 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since February 27, 2012.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (72.88%) than losses (59.24%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 4.43% versus S&P 500 Index — delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- Beta of 0.63 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index — a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.
- Alpha
- 4.43%
- Beta
- 0.63
- R²
- 0.83
- Upside Capture
- 72.88%
- Downside Capture
- 59.24%
Expense Ratio
Rick's Black Swan has an expense ratio of 0.42%, placing it in the medium range. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
Rick's Black Swan ranks 89 for risk / return — in the top 89% of portfolios on our site. This means strong returns relative to risk — exactly what professional investors look for. Well-suited for investors who want to maximize return per unit of risk.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 2.01 | 0.88 | +1.13 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.84 | 1.37 | +1.47 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.43 | 1.21 | +0.22 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 3.30 | 1.39 | +1.91 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 14.78 | 6.43 | +8.35 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XAR SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF | 89 | 2.07 | 2.75 | 1.35 | 3.54 | 12.22 |
XLV State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF | 16 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 1.05 | 0.39 | 0.83 |
IAK iShares U.S. Insurance ETF | 6 | -0.25 | -0.22 | 0.97 | -0.40 | -0.98 |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 80 | 1.78 | 2.21 | 1.33 | 2.58 | 9.32 |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 14 | 0.17 | 0.28 | 1.04 | 0.15 | 0.30 |
GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | 35 | 0.80 | 1.17 | 1.14 | 1.21 | 3.10 |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 100 | 19.57 | 254.91 | 180.89 | 367.86 | 4,130.10 |
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | 81 | 1.80 | 2.41 | 1.32 | 3.16 | 8.12 |
PSCC Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples ETF | 3 | -0.54 | -0.69 | 0.92 | -0.62 | -1.16 |
USD ProShares Ultra Semiconductors | 88 | 1.89 | 2.43 | 1.34 | 4.65 | 12.68 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
Rick's Black Swan provided a 2.08% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.08% | 2.08% | 2.37% | 2.41% | 0.98% | 0.66% | 0.84% | 1.49% | 1.30% | 0.78% | 0.78% | 0.84% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
XAR SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF | 0.34% | 0.40% | 0.66% | 0.54% | 0.50% | 0.83% | 0.63% | 0.75% | 1.19% | 0.76% | 1.09% | 2.31% |
XLV State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF | 1.71% | 1.60% | 1.67% | 1.59% | 1.47% | 1.33% | 1.49% | 2.17% | 1.57% | 1.47% | 1.60% | 1.43% |
IAK iShares U.S. Insurance ETF | 2.75% | 1.69% | 1.49% | 1.44% | 1.69% | 2.26% | 2.07% | 1.84% | 2.33% | 1.62% | 1.68% | 1.62% |
IAU iShares Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 3.33% | 3.43% | 4.48% | 6.44% | 0.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.03% | 1.08% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
GOVT iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF | 3.52% | 3.49% | 3.14% | 2.65% | 1.77% | 0.96% | 2.17% | 1.98% | 1.97% | 1.57% | 1.40% | 1.25% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 3.96% | 4.13% | 5.03% | 4.92% | 1.35% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 2.05% | 1.66% | 0.68% | 0.07% | 0.00% |
DBC Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund | 2.54% | 3.33% | 5.22% | 4.94% | 0.59% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.59% | 1.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
PSCC Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples ETF | 2.21% | 2.35% | 1.88% | 1.49% | 1.29% | 1.21% | 1.59% | 1.77% | 0.94% | 1.25% | 1.48% | 1.34% |
USD ProShares Ultra Semiconductors | 0.48% | 0.39% | 0.10% | 0.05% | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.72% | 0.93% | 0.32% | 0.46% | 0.39% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the Rick's Black Swan. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the Rick's Black Swan was 22.38%, occurring on Mar 20, 2020. Recovery took 112 trading sessions.
The current Rick's Black Swan drawdown is 3.59%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -22.38% | Feb 20, 2020 | 22 | Mar 20, 2020 | 112 | Aug 28, 2020 | 134 |
| -15.54% | Mar 30, 2022 | 128 | Sep 30, 2022 | 164 | May 26, 2023 | 292 |
| -13.15% | Oct 4, 2018 | 56 | Dec 24, 2018 | 70 | Apr 5, 2019 | 126 |
| -11.65% | Jan 24, 2025 | 52 | Apr 8, 2025 | 35 | May 29, 2025 | 87 |
| -11.49% | Jun 24, 2015 | 161 | Feb 11, 2016 | 78 | Jun 3, 2016 | 239 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 10 assets, with an effective number of assets of 10.00, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets indicates a moderate level of diversification, where some assets may have a more significant influence on overall performance.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | BIL | IAU | UUP | GOVT | DBC | PSCC | XLV | USD | IAK | XAR | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.15 | -0.18 | 0.29 | 0.56 | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.88 |
| BIL | 0.01 | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| IAU | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1.00 | -0.46 | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.05 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| UUP | -0.15 | 0.01 | -0.46 | 1.00 | -0.22 | -0.20 | -0.10 | -0.11 | -0.10 | -0.07 | -0.09 | -0.16 |
| GOVT | -0.18 | 0.02 | 0.32 | -0.22 | 1.00 | -0.16 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.16 | -0.26 | -0.14 | -0.13 |
| DBC | 0.29 | 0.01 | 0.28 | -0.20 | -0.16 | 1.00 | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.41 |
| PSCC | 0.56 | -0.02 | 0.02 | -0.10 | -0.10 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| XLV | 0.72 | -0.02 | 0.02 | -0.11 | -0.10 | 0.13 | 0.47 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.55 | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| USD | 0.75 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -0.10 | -0.16 | 0.21 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.37 | 0.50 | 0.84 |
| IAK | 0.66 | -0.01 | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.26 | 0.22 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.37 | 1.00 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| XAR | 0.68 | 0.01 | 0.04 | -0.09 | -0.14 | 0.23 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.59 | 1.00 | 0.74 |
| Portfolio | 0.88 | 0.02 | 0.18 | -0.16 | -0.13 | 0.41 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.84 | 0.62 | 0.74 | 1.00 |