Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 50% | |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | Technology | 25% |
VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF | Technology Equities | 25% |
Find the right asset allocation for an oversimplified but good portfolio
Add portfolio to the optimizer to find optimal allocations for your target — whether that's maximizing returns, minimizing drawdowns, or balancing risk across holdings.
Open Portfolio OptimizerPerformance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in an oversimplified but good portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
Loading charts...
Returns By Period
As of Jun 16, 2026, the an oversimplified but good portfolio returned -2.74% Year-To-Date and 65.71% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 1.65% | 1.97% | 10.35% | 10.82% | 26.39% | 19.66% | 12.33% | 13.81% |
Portfolio an oversimplified but good portfolio | 2.32% | -6.80% | -2.74% | -0.32% | 0.64% | 46.24% | 30.49% | 65.71% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 0.77% | -15.23% | -24.33% | -23.38% | -37.30% | 35.99% | 11.54% | 56.48% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 3.54% | -5.60% | 14.05% | 20.66% | 49.84% | 70.84% | 64.29% | 68.59% |
VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF | 3.42% | 6.55% | 28.27% | 29.82% | 55.62% | 30.76% | 21.17% | 25.72% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Sep 30, 2012, an oversimplified but good portfolio's average daily return is +0.20%, while the average monthly return is +7.08%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 0.8 years.
Historically, 64% of months were positive and 36% were negative. The best month was Nov 2013 with a return of +281.2%, while the worst month was Dec 2013 at -34.0%. The longest winning streak lasted 7 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 4 months.
On a daily basis, an oversimplified but good portfolio closed higher 54% of trading days. The best single day was Nov 18, 2013 with a return of +37.5%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -25.8%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.62% | -9.69% | -0.79% | 14.13% | 4.27% | -4.36% | -2.74% | ||||||
| 2025 | 2.11% | -9.46% | -6.72% | 7.54% | 13.93% | 7.71% | 8.17% | -3.52% | 6.27% | 1.77% | -12.96% | 0.13% | 11.94% |
| 2024 | 6.87% | 30.09% | 12.90% | -10.05% | 14.55% | 2.59% | -0.10% | -3.85% | 4.75% | 7.53% | 21.62% | -2.60% | 112.68% |
| 2023 | 30.79% | 4.96% | 19.38% | 1.26% | 7.53% | 10.26% | 1.39% | -4.26% | -3.62% | 12.30% | 11.05% | 9.12% | 150.49% |
| 2022 | -14.48% | 4.62% | 6.44% | -19.64% | -8.25% | -24.52% | 16.60% | -12.70% | -9.34% | 7.39% | -0.04% | -8.09% | -51.75% |
| 2021 | 6.88% | 21.21% | 18.27% | 3.63% | -14.65% | 7.74% | 9.29% | 11.43% | -6.97% | 28.23% | 3.23% | -11.97% | 92.76% |
Benchmark Metrics
an oversimplified but good portfolio has an annualized alpha of 60.77%, beta of 1.08, and R2 of 0.17 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since September 30, 2012.
- This portfolio captured 343.81% of S&P 500 Index gains but only 93.21% of its losses - a favorable profile for investors.
- R2 of 0.17 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index - capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 60.77%
- Beta
- 1.08
- R²
- 0.17
- Upside Capture
- 343.81%
- Downside Capture
- 93.21%
Expense Ratio
an oversimplified but good portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.02%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
an oversimplified but good portfolio ranks 5 for risk / return — in the bottom 5% of Portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for an oversimplified but good portfolio and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 0.02 | 2.14 | -2.11 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 0.23 | 2.89 | -2.66 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.03 | 1.39 | -0.36 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.02 | 2.91 | -2.89 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 0.04 | 13.08 | -13.04 |
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 36 | -0.87 | -1.17 | 0.88 | -0.73 | -1.26 |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 78 | 1.43 | 2.00 | 1.24 | 2.48 | 5.89 |
VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF | 77 | 2.52 | 3.09 | 1.41 | 3.41 | 10.55 |
Loading charts...
Dividends
Dividend yield
an oversimplified but good portfolio provided a 0.11% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 0.11% | 0.11% | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.26% | 0.17% | 0.24% | 0.35% | 0.44% | 0.32% | 0.44% | 0.62% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.05% | 0.12% | 0.27% | 0.46% | 0.29% | 0.45% | 1.20% |
VGT Vanguard Information Technology ETF | 0.32% | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.65% | 0.91% | 0.64% | 0.82% | 1.11% | 1.29% | 0.99% | 1.31% | 1.28% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
Loading charts...
Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the an oversimplified but good portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the an oversimplified but good portfolio was 62.46%, occurring on Dec 15, 2018. Recovery took 418 trading sessions.
The current an oversimplified but good portfolio drawdown is 17.91%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Rate-hike selloffLate 2018 | -62.46%Dec 2018 | 12mo 3d | 1y 1mo | 2y 1moDec 2017 - Feb 2020 |
Bear market2022 | -62.29%Nov 2022 | 1y | 1y 1mo | 2y 1moNov 2021 - Dec 2023 |
2015 bear market2015 | -60.76%Jan 2015 | 1y 1mo | 1y 5mo | 2y 6moDec 2013 - Jun 2016 |
2013 bear market2013 | -49.97%Apr 2013 | 6d | 6mo 10d | 6mo 16dApr 2013 - Oct 2013 |
COVID crash2020 | -42.22%Mar 2020 | 1mo | 2mo 3d | 3mo 3dFeb 2020 - May 2020 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
Loading charts...
Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 3 assets, with an effective number of assets of 2.67, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is well-distributed across most of your holdings, with only mild concentration in a few names. True diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.21 | 1.27 | 1.23 | 1.26 | 1.26 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.26, in line with the typical range across portfolios. There's room to improve by adding less correlated assets.
an oversimplified but good portfolio correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.71 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.63 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.66 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.51 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Sep 30, 2012 | 0.43 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. VGT has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.89, while BTC-USD has the lowest at 0.16.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what an oversimplified but good portfolio is missing
See which holdings overlap, where an oversimplified but good portfolio is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
Analyze Diversification