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2025 Big Bear Portfolio
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


S&P 500 Index

Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 2025 Big Bear Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.


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The earliest data available for this chart is Mar 8, 2022, corresponding to the inception date of CTA

Returns By Period


1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
2.91%-5.09%-4.63%-2.39%16.33%16.69%10.18%12.16%
Portfolio
2025 Big Bear Portfolio
0.35%-2.41%3.27%4.52%8.08%10.40%
CGL.TO
iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged)
4.02%-12.92%6.75%19.97%50.74%29.86%17.83%12.02%
STIP
iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF
0.05%0.11%1.02%1.38%3.99%4.69%3.49%3.11%
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
0.09%-0.49%0.28%1.37%3.75%3.98%1.79%1.74%
CTA
Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF
-1.31%0.45%12.39%10.76%6.40%15.19%
USMV
iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Factor ETF
1.15%-4.79%-1.10%-1.72%0.57%10.28%7.61%9.65%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Mar 9, 2022, 2025 Big Bear Portfolio's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.60%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 9.7 years.

Historically, 69% of months were positive and 31% were negative. The best month was Feb 2026 with a return of +3.4%, while the worst month was Sep 2022 at -3.3%. The longest winning streak lasted 13 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 2 months.

On a daily basis, 2025 Big Bear Portfolio closed higher 56% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +1.2%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -2.0%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20262.33%3.41%-2.41%3.27%
20252.03%1.48%1.90%-0.01%-0.48%0.45%0.07%1.88%1.48%-0.49%1.37%0.33%10.41%
20240.49%1.41%1.65%1.17%1.19%0.38%0.85%2.01%1.21%0.16%1.56%-0.84%11.81%
20230.58%-0.07%-0.43%1.79%-0.63%0.78%0.86%-0.60%0.60%-0.29%1.77%1.19%5.64%
2022-0.49%0.06%0.32%-0.85%2.09%-0.85%-3.25%2.10%1.06%-0.87%-0.78%

Benchmark Metrics

2025 Big Bear Portfolio has an annualized alpha of 5.57%, beta of 0.14, and R² of 0.24 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since March 09, 2022.

  • This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (21.19%) than losses (1.99%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
  • Beta of 0.14 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.24 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
  • R² of 0.24 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.

Alpha
5.57%
Beta
0.14
0.24
Upside Capture
21.19%
Downside Capture
1.99%

Expense Ratio

2025 Big Bear Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.26%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

2025 Big Bear Portfolio ranks 56 for risk / return — on par with similar portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.


2025 Big Bear Portfolio Risk / Return Rank: 5656
Overall Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio Sharpe Ratio Rank: 5757
Sharpe Ratio Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio Sortino Ratio Rank: 4545
Sortino Ratio Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio Omega Ratio Rank: 4141
Omega Ratio Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio Calmar Ratio Rank: 7474
Calmar Ratio Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio Martin Ratio Rank: 6363
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference

Sharpe ratio

Return per unit of total volatility

1.27

0.90

+0.37

Sortino ratio

Return per unit of downside risk

1.68

1.39

+0.30

Omega ratio

Gain probability vs. loss probability

1.24

1.21

+0.03

Calmar ratio

Return relative to maximum drawdown

2.46

1.40

+1.06

Martin ratio

Return relative to average drawdown

8.81

6.61

+2.21


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

Risk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
CGL.TO
iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged)
821.692.141.302.448.99
STIP
iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF
952.193.341.474.3014.63
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
972.624.211.574.2616.28
CTA
Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF
250.400.631.080.661.14
USMV
iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Factor ETF
150.050.151.020.180.79

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk.

2025 Big Bear Portfolio Sharpe ratios as of Apr 1, 2026 (values are recalculated daily):

  • 1-Year: 1.27
  • All Time: 1.52

These values reflect how efficiently the investment has delivered returns relative to its volatility over different time periods. All figures are annualized and based on daily total returns (including price changes and dividends).

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 0.97 to 1.64, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio falls between the 25th and 75th percentiles. This indicates that its risk-adjusted performance is in line with the majority of portfolios, suggesting a balanced approach to risk and return—likely suitable for a wide range of investors.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of 2025 Big Bear Portfolio compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

2025 Big Bear Portfolio provided a 3.05% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio3.05%2.96%2.99%3.46%3.44%1.46%1.15%1.46%1.48%1.03%0.88%0.58%
CGL.TO
iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged)
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
STIP
iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF
3.93%4.11%2.62%2.84%6.04%4.15%1.40%2.06%2.44%1.59%0.89%0.00%
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
3.95%4.00%4.18%3.31%1.15%0.66%1.74%2.28%1.79%1.10%0.84%0.69%
CTA
Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF
3.81%3.19%4.80%7.78%6.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
USMV
iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Factor ETF
1.58%1.49%1.67%1.82%1.62%1.26%1.81%1.88%2.12%1.77%2.22%2.02%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 2025 Big Bear Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the 2025 Big Bear Portfolio was 4.68%, occurring on Sep 30, 2022. Recovery took 207 trading sessions.

The current 2025 Big Bear Portfolio drawdown is 2.49%.


Depth

Start

To Bottom

Bottom

To Recover

End

Total

-4.68%Aug 17, 202232Sep 30, 2022207Jul 24, 2023239
-4.14%Mar 3, 202615Mar 23, 2026
-3.35%Apr 3, 20254Apr 8, 202546Jun 12, 202550
-3.27%Apr 19, 202241Jun 14, 202229Jul 25, 202270
-2.87%Oct 21, 202513Nov 6, 202535Dec 26, 202548

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 5 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.65, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

BenchmarkCTAVGSHCGL.TOUSMVSTIPPortfolio
Benchmark1.00-0.110.050.210.770.140.46
CTA-0.111.00-0.35-0.03-0.12-0.300.44
VGSH0.05-0.351.000.350.130.720.21
CGL.TO0.21-0.030.351.000.220.400.64
USMV0.77-0.120.130.221.000.200.58
STIP0.14-0.300.720.400.201.000.31
Portfolio0.460.440.210.640.580.311.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Mar 9, 2022