Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
STIP iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | Inflation-Protected Bonds | 25% |
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | Government Bonds, Short-Term Bond | 25% |
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | Systematic Trend | 20% |
USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF | Large Cap Blend Equities | 20% |
CGL.TO iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged) | Gold, Precious Metals | 10% |
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 2025 Big Bear Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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Returns By Period
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 0.50% | 0.31% | 8.56% | 8.85% | 24.33% | 19.37% | 11.84% | 13.61% |
Portfolio 2025 Big Bear Portfolio | -0.15% | -2.91% | 2.03% | 2.61% | 6.28% | 9.34% | — | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
CGL.TO iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged) | 0.07% | -11.35% | -5.12% | -4.61% | 16.70% | 25.29% | 12.44% | 10.05% |
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | -1.22% | -10.45% | 6.10% | 8.48% | 6.45% | 9.41% | — | — |
STIP iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | -0.02% | -0.09% | 1.87% | 1.97% | 4.54% | 5.26% | 3.38% | 3.14% |
USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF | 0.43% | 0.91% | 2.43% | 2.34% | 4.89% | 11.35% | 7.24% | 9.90% |
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | -0.03% | 0.16% | 0.57% | 0.83% | 3.36% | 4.25% | 1.83% | 1.73% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Mar 8, 2022, 2025 Big Bear Portfolio's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.54%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 10.7 years.
Historically, 69% of months were positive and 31% were negative. The best month was Feb 2026 with a return of +3.3%, while the worst month was Sep 2022 at -3.2%. The longest winning streak lasted 13 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 2 months.
On a daily basis, 2025 Big Bear Portfolio closed higher 56% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +1.1%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -1.8%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.41% | 3.28% | -2.36% | 2.43% | -2.15% | -1.43% | 2.03% | ||||||
| 2025 | 2.03% | 1.47% | 1.94% | -0.09% | -0.50% | 0.45% | 0.14% | 1.85% | 1.48% | -0.47% | 1.31% | 0.40% | 10.41% |
| 2024 | 0.51% | 1.39% | 1.62% | 1.29% | 1.07% | 0.42% | 0.82% | 2.05% | 1.22% | 0.17% | 1.55% | -0.81% | 11.83% |
| 2023 | 0.52% | 0.04% | -0.49% | 1.75% | -0.61% | 0.80% | 0.81% | -0.57% | 0.68% | -0.33% | 1.71% | 1.23% | 5.66% |
| 2022 | -0.86% | 0.08% | 0.28% | -0.85% | 2.09% | -0.81% | -3.17% | 2.00% | 0.91% | -0.75% | -1.18% |
Benchmark Metrics
2025 Big Bear Portfolio has an annualized alpha of 4.77%, beta of 0.12, and R2 of 0.19 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since March 08, 2022.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (18.11%) than losses (3.33%) - typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.12 may look defensive, but with R2 of 0.19 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index - low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R2 of 0.19 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index - capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 4.77%
- Beta
- 0.12
- R²
- 0.19
- Upside Capture
- 18.11%
- Downside Capture
- 3.33%
Expense Ratio
2025 Big Bear Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.26%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio ranks 15 for risk / return — in the bottom 15% of Portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for 2025 Big Bear Portfolio and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.04 | 1.86 | -0.82 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 1.42 | 2.53 | -1.11 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.19 | 1.34 | -0.15 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 1.46 | 2.53 | -1.07 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 4.23 | 11.37 | -7.15 |
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CGL.TO iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged) | 21 | 0.67 | 1.03 | 1.14 | 0.70 | 2.00 |
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 14 | 0.28 | 0.50 | 1.07 | 0.44 | 1.24 |
STIP iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | 95 | 3.17 | 5.48 | 1.68 | 6.63 | 25.91 |
USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF | 17 | 0.47 | 0.72 | 1.08 | 0.62 | 2.06 |
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | 87 | 2.61 | 4.30 | 1.55 | 3.76 | 14.67 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
2025 Big Bear Portfolio provided a 3.38% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 3.38% | 2.96% | 2.99% | 3.46% | 3.44% | 1.46% | 1.15% | 1.46% | 1.48% | 1.03% | 0.88% | 0.58% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
CGL.TO iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 5.13% | 3.19% | 4.80% | 7.78% | 6.58% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
STIP iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | 4.31% | 4.11% | 2.62% | 2.84% | 6.04% | 4.15% | 1.40% | 2.06% | 2.44% | 1.59% | 0.89% | 0.00% |
USMV iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF | 1.53% | 1.49% | 1.67% | 1.82% | 1.62% | 1.26% | 1.81% | 1.88% | 2.12% | 1.77% | 2.22% | 2.02% |
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | 3.87% | 4.00% | 4.18% | 3.31% | 1.15% | 0.66% | 1.74% | 2.28% | 1.79% | 1.10% | 0.84% | 0.69% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 2025 Big Bear Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the 2025 Big Bear Portfolio was 4.56%, occurring on Sep 30, 2022. Recovery took 207 trading sessions.
The current 2025 Big Bear Portfolio drawdown is 3.66%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Bear market2022 | -4.56%Sep 2022 | 1mo 12d | 9mo 27d | 11mo 9dAug 2022 - Jul 2023 |
2026 pullback2026 | -4.15%Mar 2026 | 20d | — | 3mo 14dMar 2026 - now |
2025 selloff2025 | -3.31%Apr 2025 | 5d | 2mo 5d | 2mo 10dApr 2025 - Jun 2025 |
Bear market2022 | -3.22%Jun 2022 | 1mo 26d | 1mo 11d | 3mo 7dApr 2022 - Jul 2022 |
2025 pullback2025 | -2.88%Nov 2025 | 16d | 1mo 20d | 2mo 6dOct 2025 - Dec 2025 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 5 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.65, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is spread almost evenly across your holdings, indicating a well-balanced allocation. Note that true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.62 | 1.81 | 1.96 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.96, placing it in the top 5% across portfolios — assets in this portfolio move largely independently, providing strong diversification benefit.
2025 Big Bear Portfolio correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.19 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.31 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 8, 2022 | 0.41 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. USMV has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.75, while CTA has the lowest at -0.13.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what 2025 Big Bear Portfolio is missing
See which holdings overlap, where 2025 Big Bear Portfolio is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
Analyze Diversification