Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
CGL.TO iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged) | Precious Metals, Gold | 10% |
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | Systematic Trend | 20% |
STIP iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | Inflation-Protected Bonds | 25% |
USMV iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Factor ETF | Large Cap Blend Equities | 20% |
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | Government Bonds, Short-Term Bond | 25% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 2025 Big Bear Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Mar 8, 2022, corresponding to the inception date of CTA
Returns By Period
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 2.91% | -5.09% | -4.63% | -2.39% | 16.33% | 16.69% | 10.18% | 12.16% |
Portfolio 2025 Big Bear Portfolio | 0.35% | -2.41% | 3.27% | 4.52% | 8.08% | 10.40% | — | — |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
CGL.TO iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged) | 4.02% | -12.92% | 6.75% | 19.97% | 50.74% | 29.86% | 17.83% | 12.02% |
STIP iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | 0.05% | 0.11% | 1.02% | 1.38% | 3.99% | 4.69% | 3.49% | 3.11% |
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | 0.09% | -0.49% | 0.28% | 1.37% | 3.75% | 3.98% | 1.79% | 1.74% |
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | -1.31% | 0.45% | 12.39% | 10.76% | 6.40% | 15.19% | — | — |
USMV iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Factor ETF | 1.15% | -4.79% | -1.10% | -1.72% | 0.57% | 10.28% | 7.61% | 9.65% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Mar 9, 2022, 2025 Big Bear Portfolio's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.60%. At this rate, your investment would double in approximately 9.7 years.
Historically, 69% of months were positive and 31% were negative. The best month was Feb 2026 with a return of +3.4%, while the worst month was Sep 2022 at -3.3%. The longest winning streak lasted 13 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 2 months.
On a daily basis, 2025 Big Bear Portfolio closed higher 56% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +1.2%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -2.0%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.33% | 3.41% | -2.41% | 3.27% | |||||||||
| 2025 | 2.03% | 1.48% | 1.90% | -0.01% | -0.48% | 0.45% | 0.07% | 1.88% | 1.48% | -0.49% | 1.37% | 0.33% | 10.41% |
| 2024 | 0.49% | 1.41% | 1.65% | 1.17% | 1.19% | 0.38% | 0.85% | 2.01% | 1.21% | 0.16% | 1.56% | -0.84% | 11.81% |
| 2023 | 0.58% | -0.07% | -0.43% | 1.79% | -0.63% | 0.78% | 0.86% | -0.60% | 0.60% | -0.29% | 1.77% | 1.19% | 5.64% |
| 2022 | -0.49% | 0.06% | 0.32% | -0.85% | 2.09% | -0.85% | -3.25% | 2.10% | 1.06% | -0.87% | -0.78% |
Benchmark Metrics
2025 Big Bear Portfolio has an annualized alpha of 5.57%, beta of 0.14, and R² of 0.24 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since March 09, 2022.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (21.19%) than losses (1.99%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.14 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.24 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R² of 0.24 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 5.57%
- Beta
- 0.14
- R²
- 0.24
- Upside Capture
- 21.19%
- Downside Capture
- 1.99%
Expense Ratio
2025 Big Bear Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.26%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio ranks 56 for risk / return — on par with similar portfolios. You're getting a typical balance of risk and reward. Not a standout, but not a red flag either — a reasonable choice if other factors align with your goals.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.27 | 0.90 | +0.37 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 1.68 | 1.39 | +0.30 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.24 | 1.21 | +0.03 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 2.46 | 1.40 | +1.06 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 8.81 | 6.61 | +2.21 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CGL.TO iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged) | 82 | 1.69 | 2.14 | 1.30 | 2.44 | 8.99 |
STIP iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | 95 | 2.19 | 3.34 | 1.47 | 4.30 | 14.63 |
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | 97 | 2.62 | 4.21 | 1.57 | 4.26 | 16.28 |
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 25 | 0.40 | 0.63 | 1.08 | 0.66 | 1.14 |
USMV iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Factor ETF | 15 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 1.02 | 0.18 | 0.79 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
2025 Big Bear Portfolio provided a 3.05% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 3.05% | 2.96% | 2.99% | 3.46% | 3.44% | 1.46% | 1.15% | 1.46% | 1.48% | 1.03% | 0.88% | 0.58% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
CGL.TO iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
STIP iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF | 3.93% | 4.11% | 2.62% | 2.84% | 6.04% | 4.15% | 1.40% | 2.06% | 2.44% | 1.59% | 0.89% | 0.00% |
VGSH Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF | 3.95% | 4.00% | 4.18% | 3.31% | 1.15% | 0.66% | 1.74% | 2.28% | 1.79% | 1.10% | 0.84% | 0.69% |
CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 3.81% | 3.19% | 4.80% | 7.78% | 6.58% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
USMV iShares MSCI USA Minimum Volatility Factor ETF | 1.58% | 1.49% | 1.67% | 1.82% | 1.62% | 1.26% | 1.81% | 1.88% | 2.12% | 1.77% | 2.22% | 2.02% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 2025 Big Bear Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the 2025 Big Bear Portfolio was 4.68%, occurring on Sep 30, 2022. Recovery took 207 trading sessions.
The current 2025 Big Bear Portfolio drawdown is 2.49%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -4.68% | Aug 17, 2022 | 32 | Sep 30, 2022 | 207 | Jul 24, 2023 | 239 |
| -4.14% | Mar 3, 2026 | 15 | Mar 23, 2026 | — | — | — |
| -3.35% | Apr 3, 2025 | 4 | Apr 8, 2025 | 46 | Jun 12, 2025 | 50 |
| -3.27% | Apr 19, 2022 | 41 | Jun 14, 2022 | 29 | Jul 25, 2022 | 70 |
| -2.87% | Oct 21, 2025 | 13 | Nov 6, 2025 | 35 | Dec 26, 2025 | 48 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 5 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.65, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | CTA | VGSH | CGL.TO | USMV | STIP | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | -0.11 | 0.05 | 0.21 | 0.77 | 0.14 | 0.46 |
| CTA | -0.11 | 1.00 | -0.35 | -0.03 | -0.12 | -0.30 | 0.44 |
| VGSH | 0.05 | -0.35 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 0.72 | 0.21 |
| CGL.TO | 0.21 | -0.03 | 0.35 | 1.00 | 0.22 | 0.40 | 0.64 |
| USMV | 0.77 | -0.12 | 0.13 | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 0.58 |
| STIP | 0.14 | -0.30 | 0.72 | 0.40 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.31 |
| Portfolio | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.21 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.31 | 1.00 |