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2025 Big Bear Portfolio
Performance
Return for Risk
Dividends
Drawdowns
Volatility
Diversification

Asset Allocation


CTA 20.00%STIP 25.00%VGSH 25.00%CGL.TO 10.00%USMV 20.00%AlternativesAlternativesBondBondCommodityCommodityEquityEquity

S&P 500 Index

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Performance

Performance Chart

The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 2025 Big Bear Portfolio, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.


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Returns By Period


Position1D1MYTD6M1Y3Y*5Y*10Y*
Benchmark
S&P 500 Index
0.50%0.31%8.56%8.85%24.33%19.37%11.84%13.61%
Portfolio
2025 Big Bear Portfolio
-0.15%-2.91%2.03%2.61%6.28%9.34%
CGL.TO
iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged)
0.07%-11.35%-5.12%-4.61%16.70%25.29%12.44%10.05%
CTA
Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF
-1.22%-10.45%6.10%8.48%6.45%9.41%
STIP
iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF
-0.02%-0.09%1.87%1.97%4.54%5.26%3.38%3.14%
USMV
iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
0.43%0.91%2.43%2.34%4.89%11.35%7.24%9.90%
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
-0.03%0.16%0.57%0.83%3.36%4.25%1.83%1.73%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

Monthly Returns

Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Mar 8, 2022, 2025 Big Bear Portfolio's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.54%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 10.7 years.

Historically, 69% of months were positive and 31% were negative. The best month was Feb 2026 with a return of +3.3%, while the worst month was Sep 2022 at -3.2%. The longest winning streak lasted 13 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 2 months.

On a daily basis, 2025 Big Bear Portfolio closed higher 56% of trading days. The best single day was Apr 9, 2025 with a return of +1.1%, while the worst single day was Apr 4, 2025 at -1.8%.


JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecTotal
20262.41%3.28%-2.36%2.43%-2.15%-1.43%2.03%
20252.03%1.47%1.94%-0.09%-0.50%0.45%0.14%1.85%1.48%-0.47%1.31%0.40%10.41%
20240.51%1.39%1.62%1.29%1.07%0.42%0.82%2.05%1.22%0.17%1.55%-0.81%11.83%
20230.52%0.04%-0.49%1.75%-0.61%0.80%0.81%-0.57%0.68%-0.33%1.71%1.23%5.66%
2022-0.86%0.08%0.28%-0.85%2.09%-0.81%-3.17%2.00%0.91%-0.75%-1.18%

Benchmark Metrics

2025 Big Bear Portfolio has an annualized alpha of 4.77%, beta of 0.12, and R2 of 0.19 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since March 08, 2022.

  • This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (18.11%) than losses (3.33%) - typical of diversified or defensive assets.
  • Beta of 0.12 may look defensive, but with R2 of 0.19 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index - low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
  • R2 of 0.19 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index - capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.

Alpha
4.77%
Beta
0.12
0.19
Upside Capture
18.11%
Downside Capture
3.33%

Expense Ratio

2025 Big Bear Portfolio has an expense ratio of 0.26%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.


Return for Risk

Risk / Return Rank

2025 Big Bear Portfolio ranks 15 for risk / return — in the bottom 15% of Portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.


2025 Big Bear Portfolio Risk / Return Rank: 1515
Overall Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio Sharpe Ratio Rank: 1515
Sharpe Ratio Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio Sortino Ratio Rank: 1414
Sortino Ratio Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio Omega Ratio Rank: 1414
Omega Ratio Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio Calmar Ratio Rank: 1717
Calmar Ratio Rank
2025 Big Bear Portfolio Martin Ratio Rank: 1616
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

Return / Risk — by metrics

The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for 2025 Big Bear Portfolio and compares them with S&P 500 Index.

Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.


PortfolioBenchmarkDifference
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility

1.04

1.86

-0.82

Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk

1.42

2.53

-1.11

Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability

1.19

1.34

-0.15

Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown

1.46

2.53

-1.07

Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown

4.23

11.37

-7.15


How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.

PositionRisk / Return RankSharpe ratioSortino ratioOmega ratioCalmar ratioMartin ratio
CGL.TO
iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged)
21
0.671.031.140.702.00
CTA
Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF
14
0.280.501.070.441.24
STIP
iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF
95
3.175.481.686.6325.91
USMV
iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
17
0.470.721.080.622.06
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
87
2.614.301.553.7614.67

Sharpe Ratio

The Sharpe ratio helps investors understand how much return they're getting for the level of risk taken. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance, meaning more reward for each unit of risk. Learn how to interpret the Sharpe ratio.

The current 2025 Big Bear Portfolio Sharpe ratio is 1.04 as of Jun 13, 2026 (the value is recalculated daily), calculated over the past 12 months.

Compared to the broad market, where average Sharpe ratios range from 1.53 to 2.41, this portfolio's current Sharpe ratio places it in the bottom 25%. This suggests weaker risk-adjusted returns than most portfolios, possibly due to lower returns, higher volatility, or both. It may be worth reviewing the allocation. You can use the Portfolio Optimization tool to explore options for improving the Sharpe ratio.

The chart below shows the rolling Sharpe ratio of 2025 Big Bear Portfolio compared to the selected benchmark. This view highlights how the investment's risk-adjusted performance has changed over time.


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Dividends

Dividend yield

2025 Big Bear Portfolio provided a 3.38% dividend yield over the last twelve months.


PositionTTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
Portfolio3.38%2.96%2.99%3.46%3.44%1.46%1.15%1.46%1.48%1.03%0.88%0.58%
CGL.TO
iShares Gold Bullion ETF (CAD-Hedged)
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
CTA
Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF
5.13%3.19%4.80%7.78%6.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
STIP
iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF
4.31%4.11%2.62%2.84%6.04%4.15%1.40%2.06%2.44%1.59%0.89%0.00%
USMV
iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
1.53%1.49%1.67%1.82%1.62%1.26%1.81%1.88%2.12%1.77%2.22%2.02%
VGSH
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF
3.87%4.00%4.18%3.31%1.15%0.66%1.74%2.28%1.79%1.10%0.84%0.69%

Drawdowns

Drawdowns Chart

The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.


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Worst Drawdowns

The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 2025 Big Bear Portfolio. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.

The maximum drawdown for the 2025 Big Bear Portfolio was 4.56%, occurring on Sep 30, 2022. Recovery took 207 trading sessions.

The current 2025 Big Bear Portfolio drawdown is 3.66%.


Related event

Drawdown

Fall

Recovery

Underwater

Bear market2022
-4.56%Sep 2022
1mo 12d9mo 27d
11mo 9dAug 2022 - Jul 2023
2026 pullback2026
-4.15%Mar 2026
20d
3mo 14dMar 2026 - now
2025 selloff2025
-3.31%Apr 2025
5d2mo 5d
2mo 10dApr 2025 - Jun 2025
Bear market2022
-3.22%Jun 2022
1mo 26d1mo 11d
3mo 7dApr 2022 - Jul 2022
2025 pullback2025
-2.88%Nov 2025
16d1mo 20d
2mo 6dOct 2025 - Dec 2025

Volatility

Volatility Chart

The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.


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Diversification

Diversification Metrics


Number of Effective Assets

The portfolio contains 5 assets, with an effective number of assets of 4.65, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is spread almost evenly across your holdings, indicating a well-balanced allocation. Note that true diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.


Diversification Ratio
1Y
3Y
All Time
Diversification Ratio

1.62

1.81

1.96

The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.96, placing it in the top 5% across portfolios — assets in this portfolio move largely independently, providing strong diversification benefit.

2025 Big Bear Portfolio correlation to the S&P 500 Index

2025 Big Bear Portfolio has a 0.19 correlation to S&P 500 Index over the trailing 12 months. This section compares each holding's correlation to the benchmark and to the portfolio.

Correlation
Correlation (1Y)
Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

0.19

Correlation (3Y)
Calculated over the trailing 3-year period

0.31

Correlation (All Time)
Calculated using the full available price history since Mar 8, 2022

0.41


Benchmark Correlations

Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. USMV has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.75, while CTA has the lowest at -0.13.

CTA
-0.13
VGSH
0.07
CGL.TO
0.14
STIP
0.14
USMV
0.75

Portfolio Correlations

Correlation vs. 2025 Big Bear Portfolio. USMV has the highest portfolio correlation at 0.55, while VGSH has the lowest at 0.17.

VGSH
0.17
STIP
0.29
CTA
0.49
CGL.TO
0.54
USMV
0.55

Asset Correlations Table

The table below displays the correlation coefficients between the individual components of the portfolio, the entire portfolio, and the chosen benchmark.

CTACGL.TOVGSHUSMVSTIP
CTA1.00-0.05-0.36-0.11-0.28
CGL.TO-0.051.000.310.130.35
VGSH-0.360.311.000.140.71
USMV-0.110.130.141.000.19
STIP-0.280.350.710.191.00
The correlation results are calculated based on daily price changes starting from Mar 8, 2022
Diversification Analysis

Find what 2025 Big Bear Portfolio is missing

See which holdings overlap, where 2025 Big Bear Portfolio is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.

Analyze Diversification