There are only 4 markets!
There are only 4 kinds of capital markets and you can win if you can find 4 uncorrelated assets for each phases of the market which make more money in their respective cycles than they lose during other phases. Here's an example (I have a better one - DM me if you want to see it):
1. Rising rates (inflation): Rising rates means USD is in demand ($UUP)
2. Falling rates (deflation): Money is shifting away from bonds to stocks but there will be winners and losers in this market. Managed long/short (e.g. $QLEIX) is a good idea.
3. Flattened high-rates (recession): Buy gold/commodities ($LCSIX) or consumer-stapes/utilities
4. Flattened low-rates (prosperity): Buy growth stocks ($VOOG or $PGTYX)
Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | Government Bonds | 25% |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | Precious Metals, Gold | 5.50% |
LCSIX LoCorr Long/Short Commodity Strategies Fund | Systematic Trend | 5.50% |
QLD ProShares Ultra QQQ | Leveraged Equities, Leveraged | 8.50% |
QLEIX AQR Long-Short Equity Fund | Long-Short | 8.50% |
USD=X USD Cash | -0.10% | |
USFR WisdomTree Bloomberg Floating Rate Treasury Fund | Government Bonds | 25% |
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | Currency | 16.50% |
VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund | Money Market | 0.10% |
XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund | Consumer Staples Equities | 5.50% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in There are only 4 markets!, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced every 3 months.
The earliest data available for this chart is Feb 4, 2014, corresponding to the inception date of USFR
Returns By Period
As of Feb 5, 2025, the There are only 4 markets! returned 1.54% Year-To-Date and 6.34% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| YTD | 1M | 6M | 1Y | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 | 2.66% | 1.61% | 15.23% | 22.15% | 12.59% | 11.41% |
| There are only 4 markets! | 1.54% | 1.01% | 7.61% | 11.78% | 7.55% | 6.34% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | -0.17% | -0.71% | 7.70% | 9.28% | 4.22% | 2.99% |
LCSIX LoCorr Long/Short Commodity Strategies Fund | 2.41% | 0.68% | -5.84% | -6.23% | 3.14% | 5.23% |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 8.41% | 7.81% | 18.94% | 39.95% | 11.81% | 7.98% |
XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund | 0.01% | 0.37% | 1.79% | 9.66% | 6.70% | 7.39% |
USFR WisdomTree Bloomberg Floating Rate Treasury Fund | 0.44% | 0.40% | 2.55% | 5.29% | 2.53% | 1.86% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 0.38% | 0.35% | 2.35% | 5.07% | 2.31% | 1.60% |
QLD ProShares Ultra QQQ | 4.32% | 1.47% | 36.36% | 37.35% | 25.31% | 28.69% |
VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.05% | 4.78% | 2.34% | 1.59% |
QLEIX AQR Long-Short Equity Fund | 4.74% | 3.84% | 18.87% | 27.75% | 15.90% | 8.86% |
USD=X USD Cash | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Monthly Returns
The table below presents the monthly returns of There are only 4 markets!, with color gradation from worst to best to easily spot seasonal factors. Returns are adjusted for dividends.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.44% | 1.54% | |||||||||||
| 2024 | 1.46% | 1.50% | 1.77% | 0.03% | 1.65% | 1.38% | -0.06% | 0.47% | 0.90% | 0.60% | 1.87% | 0.30% | 12.50% |
| 2023 | 2.42% | 0.21% | 2.06% | 0.51% | 1.45% | 1.61% | 1.40% | 0.15% | -0.23% | 0.21% | 2.26% | 1.13% | 13.94% |
| 2022 | -0.59% | -0.24% | 1.11% | -0.95% | -0.34% | -1.66% | 2.17% | -1.00% | -2.21% | 1.74% | 1.51% | -1.94% | -2.49% |
| 2021 | -0.10% | 0.16% | 1.98% | 1.35% | 0.43% | 0.81% | 0.76% | 0.76% | -1.08% | 1.72% | 0.55% | 1.67% | 9.34% |
| 2020 | 1.12% | -1.76% | -1.91% | 3.47% | 0.96% | 1.45% | 1.65% | 2.37% | -1.64% | -1.12% | 1.76% | 1.19% | 7.62% |
| 2019 | 2.06% | 1.02% | 1.31% | 1.10% | -1.91% | 2.03% | 1.01% | 0.12% | 0.32% | 0.61% | 0.96% | 0.89% | 9.88% |
| 2018 | 1.88% | -0.88% | -0.84% | 0.07% | 1.37% | -0.03% | 0.75% | 1.16% | 0.18% | -1.45% | 0.30% | -1.90% | 0.54% |
| 2017 | 0.93% | 1.63% | 0.36% | 0.42% | 0.43% | -0.85% | 0.56% | 1.05% | 0.06% | 1.16% | 0.44% | 0.11% | 6.47% |
| 2016 | -0.57% | 0.31% | 0.87% | -0.84% | 1.07% | 0.29% | 1.65% | -0.11% | 0.35% | 0.12% | -0.01% | 0.34% | 3.48% |
| 2015 | 1.04% | 1.32% | -0.20% | -0.40% | 1.29% | -1.05% | 1.68% | -2.21% | 0.22% | 2.97% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 5.03% |
| 2014 | 2.09% | -0.38% | 0.07% | 1.08% | 0.81% | 0.43% | 1.67% | 0.49% | 0.78% | 1.60% | -0.18% | 8.75% |
Expense Ratio
There are only 4 markets! features an expense ratio of 0.51%, falling within the medium range. Below you can find the expense ratios of portfolio funds side-by-side and effortlessly compare their relative costs.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Risk-Adjusted Performance Rank
With an overall rank of 94, There are only 4 markets! is among the top 6% of portfolios on our website when it comes to balancing risk and reward. Below is a breakdown of how it compares using common performance measures.
Risk-Adjusted Performance Indicators
This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for positions. Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.
| Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 1.54 | 2.23 | 1.29 | 2.18 | 6.02 |
LCSIX LoCorr Long/Short Commodity Strategies Fund | -1.19 | -1.55 | 0.81 | -0.52 | -1.40 |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 2.72 | 3.47 | 1.47 | 5.03 | 13.24 |
XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund | 1.04 | 1.54 | 1.18 | 1.23 | 3.60 |
USFR WisdomTree Bloomberg Floating Rate Treasury Fund | 15.78 | 54.00 | 14.02 | 84.45 | 737.77 |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 19.29 | 250.49 | 145.62 | 442.06 | 4,071.50 |
QLD ProShares Ultra QQQ | 1.01 | 1.46 | 1.20 | 1.39 | 4.27 |
VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund | 3.45 | — | — | — | — |
QLEIX AQR Long-Short Equity Fund | 3.91 | 5.44 | 1.81 | 5.11 | 24.96 |
USD=X USD Cash | — | — | — | — | — |
Dividends
Dividend yield
There are only 4 markets! provided a 4.14% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 4.14% | 4.22% | 5.62% | 2.56% | 0.52% | 0.47% | 1.55% | 1.90% | 0.94% | 0.64% | 0.96% | 1.30% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | 4.48% | 4.48% | 6.45% | 0.89% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.03% | 1.08% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
LCSIX LoCorr Long/Short Commodity Strategies Fund | 2.63% | 2.69% | 1.89% | 10.75% | 7.14% | 2.93% | 0.54% | 12.36% | 0.02% | 3.20% | 7.35% | 9.86% |
GLD SPDR Gold Trust | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund | 2.77% | 2.77% | 2.63% | 2.47% | 2.28% | 2.50% | 2.57% | 3.04% | 2.62% | 2.53% | 2.53% | 2.40% |
USFR WisdomTree Bloomberg Floating Rate Treasury Fund | 5.05% | 5.17% | 5.12% | 1.78% | 0.01% | 0.40% | 2.08% | 1.67% | 1.04% | 0.29% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
BIL SPDR Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | 4.94% | 5.03% | 4.92% | 1.35% | 0.00% | 0.30% | 2.05% | 1.66% | 0.68% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
QLD ProShares Ultra QQQ | 0.24% | 0.25% | 0.33% | 0.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.13% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.90% | 0.11% | 0.19% |
VMFXX Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund | 4.66% | 5.11% | 4.97% | 1.54% | 0.01% | 0.45% | 2.12% | 1.61% | 0.50% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
QLEIX AQR Long-Short Equity Fund | 6.80% | 7.12% | 20.80% | 10.30% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.37% | 4.04% | 1.86% | 4.82% | 7.12% |
USD=X USD Cash | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the There are only 4 markets!. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the There are only 4 markets! was 8.03%, occurring on Mar 16, 2020. Recovery took 71 trading sessions.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8.03% | Feb 20, 2020 | 18 | Mar 16, 2020 | 71 | Jun 23, 2020 | 89 |
| -4.46% | Aug 17, 2022 | 33 | Sep 30, 2022 | 89 | Feb 2, 2023 | 122 |
| -4.37% | Oct 4, 2018 | 58 | Dec 24, 2018 | 55 | Mar 11, 2019 | 113 |
| -3.86% | Jul 20, 2015 | 27 | Aug 25, 2015 | 43 | Oct 23, 2015 | 70 |
| -3.63% | Sep 3, 2020 | 15 | Sep 23, 2020 | 85 | Jan 20, 2021 | 100 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The current There are only 4 markets! volatility is 1.01%, representing the average percentage change in the investments's value, either up or down over the past month. The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
Diversification
Asset Correlations Table
| USD=X | VMFXX | LCSIX | USFR | BIL | GLD | UUP | QLEIX | QLD | XLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD=X | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| VMFXX | 0.00 | 1.00 | -0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.00 | -0.03 |
| LCSIX | 0.00 | -0.02 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 0.09 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.04 | -0.02 |
| USFR | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.02 |
| BIL | 0.00 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.02 | -0.00 | 0.00 |
| GLD | 0.00 | -0.01 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 1.00 | -0.47 | -0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| UUP | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 | -0.47 | 1.00 | -0.07 | -0.11 | -0.13 |
| QLEIX | 0.00 | -0.05 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | -0.04 | -0.07 | 1.00 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| QLD | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.04 | 0.01 | -0.00 | 0.02 | -0.11 | 0.39 | 1.00 | 0.46 |
| XLP | 0.00 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 | -0.13 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 1.00 |