Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 Index | 30% | |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 5% | |
ETH-USD Ethereum | 5% | |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | Gold, Precious Metals | 10% |
IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds | 10% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | Government Bonds, Long-Term Bond | 40% |
Performance
Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in marlun2, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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The earliest data available for this chart is Aug 7, 2015, corresponding to the inception date of ETH-USD
Returns By Period
As of Apr 11, 2026, the marlun2 returned -0.98% Year-To-Date and 17.99% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | -0.11% | 2.78% | -0.42% | 4.03% | 27.10% | 18.38% | 10.55% | 12.70% |
Portfolio marlun2 | -0.33% | 0.77% | -0.98% | -2.57% | 17.23% | 11.02% | 4.85% | 17.99% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
^GSPC S&P 500 Index | -0.11% | 2.78% | -0.42% | 4.03% | 27.10% | 18.38% | 10.55% | 12.70% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.24% | 0.34% | 0.34% | -2.42% | 4.06% | -3.00% | -5.82% | -1.38% |
IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | -0.17% | -0.00% | 0.02% | 0.18% | 5.84% | 2.13% | -0.78% | 0.78% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | -0.18% | -5.14% | 10.30% | 18.42% | 46.72% | 32.89% | 21.77% | 13.80% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | -2.58% | 0.36% | -18.63% | -38.13% | -16.51% | 32.79% | 2.29% | 66.83% |
ETH-USD Ethereum | -3.49% | 5.41% | -25.64% | -46.92% | 34.20% | 3.08% | -0.83% | 74.44% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Aug 8, 2015, marlun2's average daily return is +0.06%, while the average monthly return is +1.82%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 3.2 years.
Historically, 62% of months were positive and 38% were negative. The best month was Feb 2016 with a return of +24.5%, while the worst month was Apr 2022 at -8.7%. The longest winning streak lasted 9 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 7 months.
On a daily basis, marlun2 closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 12, 2016 with a return of +8.3%, while the worst single day was Mar 12, 2020 at -7.5%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.22% | 1.32% | -4.45% | 2.06% | -0.98% | ||||||||
| 2025 | 2.20% | -0.24% | -1.88% | 0.50% | 3.06% | 2.77% | 2.87% | 2.22% | 3.46% | 1.11% | -1.03% | -1.08% | 14.68% |
| 2024 | -0.52% | 5.08% | 3.76% | -5.50% | 4.60% | 1.07% | 2.47% | 0.39% | 2.56% | -2.03% | 6.64% | -4.39% | 14.20% |
| 2023 | 9.46% | -3.42% | 6.36% | 1.01% | -1.75% | 2.47% | -0.33% | -3.08% | -5.21% | -0.44% | 8.41% | 6.56% | 20.44% |
| 2022 | -5.68% | -0.14% | -0.63% | -8.72% | -3.15% | -6.35% | 7.33% | -4.96% | -7.92% | 0.87% | 3.68% | -3.29% | -26.39% |
| 2021 | 2.32% | 0.52% | 4.27% | 5.26% | -0.86% | 0.34% | 4.10% | 3.40% | -4.41% | 7.49% | 0.92% | -1.97% | 22.86% |
Benchmark Metrics
marlun2 has an annualized alpha of 13.65%, beta of 0.32, and R² of 0.17 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since August 08, 2015.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (68.57%) than losses (26.79%) — typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- Beta of 0.32 may look defensive, but with R² of 0.17 this portfolio is largely uncorrelated with S&P 500 Index — low beta reflects independence, not downside protection. See the Volatility section for a true picture of this portfolio's risk.
- R² of 0.17 means this portfolio moves largely independently of S&P 500 Index — capture ratios reflect limited market correlation rather than active downside protection. Consider using a more representative benchmark.
- Alpha
- 13.65%
- Beta
- 0.32
- R²
- 0.17
- Upside Capture
- 68.57%
- Downside Capture
- 26.79%
Expense Ratio
marlun2 has an expense ratio of 0.12%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
marlun2 ranks 17 for risk / return — in the bottom 17% of portfolios on our site. This means you're taking on significantly more risk than the returns justify. Consider whether the potential upside is worth the volatility, or explore alternatives with better risk / return profiles.
Return / Risk — by metrics
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 1.71 | 2.23 | -0.52 |
Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 2.46 | 3.12 | -0.66 |
Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.27 | 1.42 | -0.15 |
Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 0.66 | 4.05 | -3.39 |
Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 1.80 | 17.91 | -16.11 |
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month. | |||
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
^GSPC S&P 500 Index | 79 | 2.23 | 3.12 | 1.42 | 4.05 | 17.91 |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 11 | 0.45 | 0.71 | 1.08 | 0.36 | 0.78 |
IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 20 | 1.05 | 1.55 | 1.18 | 1.33 | 3.81 |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 39 | 1.82 | 2.24 | 1.34 | 3.06 | 10.54 |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 41 | -0.39 | -0.29 | 0.97 | -1.00 | -1.71 |
ETH-USD Ethereum | 78 | 0.47 | 1.20 | 1.12 | -0.78 | -1.28 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
marlun2 provided a 2.19% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.19% | 2.15% | 2.08% | 1.64% | 1.26% | 0.68% | 0.71% | 1.12% | 1.28% | 1.15% | 1.22% | 1.23% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
^GSPC S&P 500 Index | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | 4.52% | 4.43% | 4.30% | 3.38% | 2.67% | 1.50% | 1.50% | 2.27% | 2.63% | 2.43% | 2.60% | 2.61% |
IEF iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | 3.84% | 3.77% | 3.62% | 2.91% | 1.96% | 0.83% | 1.08% | 2.08% | 2.24% | 1.82% | 1.81% | 1.90% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
BTC-USD Bitcoin | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
ETH-USD Ethereum | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the marlun2. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the marlun2 was 32.41%, occurring on Nov 9, 2022. Recovery took 749 trading sessions.
The current marlun2 drawdown is 4.17%.
Depth | Start | To Bottom | Bottom | To Recover | End | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -32.41% | Nov 10, 2021 | 365 | Nov 9, 2022 | 749 | Nov 27, 2024 | 1114 |
| -20.39% | Dec 19, 2017 | 341 | Nov 24, 2018 | 207 | Jun 19, 2019 | 548 |
| -18.34% | Mar 7, 2020 | 12 | Mar 18, 2020 | 42 | Apr 29, 2020 | 54 |
| -12.05% | Mar 14, 2016 | 7 | Mar 20, 2016 | 85 | Jun 13, 2016 | 92 |
| -11.53% | Dec 9, 2024 | 121 | Apr 8, 2025 | 83 | Jun 30, 2025 | 204 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 6 assets, with an effective number of assets of 3.64, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. This number of effective assets suggests a highly concentrated portfolio, where a few assets dominate the allocation, potentially increasing the portfolio's risk due to lack of diversification.
Asset Correlations Table
| Benchmark | GLD | BTC-USD | TLT | ETH-USD | IEF | ^GSPC | Portfolio | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.20 | -0.13 | 0.22 | -0.12 | 1.00 | 0.43 |
| GLD | 0.02 | 1.00 | 0.09 | 0.28 | 0.08 | 0.34 | 0.02 | 0.31 |
| BTC-USD | 0.20 | 0.09 | 1.00 | -0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.62 |
| TLT | -0.13 | 0.28 | -0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 | -0.11 | 0.42 |
| ETH-USD | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.72 |
| IEF | -0.12 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.90 | 0.01 | 1.00 | -0.11 | 0.41 |
| ^GSPC | 1.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 | -0.11 | 0.17 | -0.11 | 1.00 | 0.36 |
| Portfolio | 0.43 | 0.31 | 0.62 | 0.42 | 0.72 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 1.00 |