Asset Allocation
| Position | Category/Sector | Target Weight |
|---|---|---|
VIPSX Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares | Inflation-Protected Bonds | 45% |
VTSMX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares | Large Cap Blend Equities | 25% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | Gold, Precious Metals | 15% |
DFSVX DFA U.S. Small Cap Value Portfolio I | Small Cap Value Equities | 15% |
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Performance Chart
The chart shows the growth of an initial investment of $10,000 in 40/45/15, comparing it to the performance of the S&P 500 index or another benchmark. All prices have been adjusted for splits and dividends. The portfolio is rebalanced Every 3 months.
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Returns By Period
As of Jun 16, 2026, the 40/45/15 returned 6.02% Year-To-Date and 9.02% of annualized return in the last 10 years.
| Position | 1D | 1M | YTD | 6M | 1Y | 3Y* | 5Y* | 10Y* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Benchmark S&P 500 Index | 1.65% | 1.97% | 10.35% | 10.82% | 26.39% | 19.66% | 12.33% | 13.81% |
Portfolio 40/45/15 | 0.34% | 0.77% | 6.02% | 5.83% | 18.13% | 13.89% | 8.05% | 9.02% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||
DFSVX DFA U.S. Small Cap Value Portfolio I | 1.07% | 6.91% | 19.04% | 16.51% | 37.92% | 17.58% | 10.73% | 11.92% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 2.59% | -4.97% | 0.06% | 0.19% | 25.38% | 29.73% | 18.31% | 12.33% |
VIPSX Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares | -0.17% | 0.34% | 1.17% | 1.28% | 4.66% | 3.93% | 0.88% | 2.47% |
VTSMX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares | 0.50% | 1.05% | 9.64% | 9.95% | 26.21% | 20.25% | 11.96% | 14.83% |
Monthly Returns
Based on dividend-adjusted daily data since Nov 18, 2004, 40/45/15's average daily return is +0.03%, while the average monthly return is +0.65%. At this rate, an investment would double in approximately 8.9 years.
Historically, 64% of months were positive and 36% were negative. The best month was Apr 2020 with a return of +7.9%, while the worst month was Oct 2008 at -14.2%. The longest winning streak lasted 10 consecutive months, and the longest losing streak was 6 months.
On a daily basis, 40/45/15 closed higher 55% of trading days. The best single day was Mar 24, 2020 with a return of +4.1%, while the worst single day was Mar 16, 2020 at -4.3%.
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.46% | 2.37% | -4.18% | 4.01% | 1.23% | -0.77% | 6.02% | ||||||
| 2025 | 2.78% | 0.01% | -0.58% | -0.10% | 2.12% | 2.49% | 0.72% | 3.24% | 2.68% | 0.98% | 1.56% | 0.31% | 17.34% |
| 2024 | -0.34% | 1.31% | 3.22% | -2.27% | 3.03% | 0.72% | 3.61% | 0.84% | 1.86% | -0.60% | 2.90% | -2.96% | 11.64% |
| 2023 | 4.84% | -2.21% | 2.01% | 0.15% | -1.17% | 2.72% | 2.30% | -1.53% | -3.43% | -0.60% | 5.11% | 4.51% | 12.92% |
| 2022 | -3.03% | 0.95% | 0.33% | -4.38% | -0.43% | -5.27% | 5.27% | -2.89% | -7.22% | 4.52% | 4.19% | -2.64% | -10.93% |
| 2021 | 0.46% | 1.02% | 1.92% | 2.77% | 2.40% | -0.63% | 1.64% | 0.96% | -2.08% | 2.96% | -0.41% | 2.37% | 14.07% |
Benchmark Metrics
40/45/15 has an annualized alpha of 3.83%, beta of 0.40, and R2 of 0.70 versus S&P 500 Index. Calculated based on daily prices since November 18, 2004.
- This portfolio participates in less of S&P 500 Index's moves in both directions, but captures a larger share of gains (51.39%) than losses (44.78%) - typical of diversified or defensive assets.
- This portfolio generated an annualized alpha of 3.83% versus S&P 500 Index - delivering returns beyond what market exposure alone would predict.
- Beta of 0.40 indicates this portfolio moves significantly less than S&P 500 Index - a genuinely defensive profile with reduced participation in both market rallies and downturns.
- Alpha
- 3.83%
- Beta
- 0.40
- R²
- 0.70
- Upside Capture
- 51.39%
- Downside Capture
- 44.78%
Expense Ratio
40/45/15 has an expense ratio of 0.23%, which is considered low. Below, you can find the expense ratios of the portfolio's funds side by side and easily compare their relative costs.
Return for Risk
Risk / Return Rank
40/45/15 ranks 63 for risk / return — better than 63% of Portfolios on our site. You're getting solid returns for the risk taken. A good sign, especially for investors who want growth without excessive volatility.
Return / Risk — by metrics
The table below presents risk-adjusted performance metrics for 40/45/15 and compares them with S&P 500 Index.
Values are calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. Risk-adjusted metrics are more stable over longer periods — use the period switch above to explore them.
| Portfolio | Benchmark | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility | 2.20 | 2.14 | +0.07 |
| Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk | 3.04 | 2.89 | +0.15 |
| Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability | 1.42 | 1.39 | +0.03 |
| Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown | 3.03 | 2.91 | +0.12 |
| Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown | 12.16 | 13.08 | -0.92 |
How much return does each position deliver for the risk it carries? Higher values mean better reward for the risk taken.
| Position | Risk / Return Rank | Sharpe ratio | Sortino ratio | Omega ratio | Calmar ratio | Martin ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DFSVX DFA U.S. Small Cap Value Portfolio I | 73 | 2.05 | 2.98 | 1.36 | 3.76 | 12.06 |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 27 | 0.93 | 1.30 | 1.19 | 1.04 | 2.97 |
VIPSX Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares | 33 | 1.34 | 2.03 | 1.23 | 2.23 | 6.81 |
VTSMX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares | 64 | 1.95 | 2.66 | 1.35 | 2.78 | 12.51 |
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Dividends
Dividend yield
40/45/15 provided a 2.44% dividend yield over the last twelve months.
| Position | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio | 2.44% | 2.53% | 2.27% | 2.78% | 5.15% | 4.10% | 1.20% | 1.84% | 2.97% | 2.23% | 2.60% | 1.61% |
| Portfolio components: | ||||||||||||
DFSVX DFA U.S. Small Cap Value Portfolio I | 1.46% | 1.69% | 1.47% | 3.67% | 6.77% | 10.40% | 1.96% | 2.83% | 7.54% | 5.18% | 4.18% | 5.29% |
GLD SPDR Gold Shares | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
VIPSX Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund Investor Shares | 4.41% | 4.64% | 4.07% | 4.20% | 8.34% | 5.03% | 1.28% | 2.22% | 3.03% | 2.32% | 3.38% | 0.77% |
VTSMX Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Investor Shares | 0.95% | 0.75% | 0.89% | 1.33% | 1.54% | 1.11% | 1.33% | 1.67% | 1.92% | 1.61% | 1.83% | 1.86% |
Drawdowns
Drawdowns Chart
The Drawdowns chart displays portfolio losses from any high point along the way. Drawdowns are calculated considering price movements and all distributions paid, if any.
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Worst Drawdowns
The table below displays the maximum drawdowns of the 40/45/15. A maximum drawdown is a measure of risk, indicating the largest reduction in portfolio value due to a series of losing trades.
The maximum drawdown for the 40/45/15 was 28.54%, occurring on Nov 20, 2008. Recovery took 259 trading sessions.
The current 40/45/15 drawdown is 0.92%.
Related event | Drawdown | Fall | Recovery | Underwater |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Financial crisis2007–2009 | -28.54%Nov 2008 | 6mo 3d | 1y 12d | 1y 6moMay 2008 - Dec 2009 |
COVID crash2020 | -18.28%Mar 2020 | 26d | 2mo 19d | 3mo 15dFeb 2020 - Jun 2020 |
Bear market2022 | -16.68%Sep 2022 | 10mo 19d | 1y 2mo | 2y 1moNov 2021 - Dec 2023 |
2016 pullback2016 | -9.28%Jan 2016 | 9mo 8d | 4mo 19d | 1y 1moApr 2015 - Jun 2016 |
Rate-hike selloffLate 2018 | -9.03%Dec 2018 | 3mo 28d | 2mo 27d | 6mo 25dAug 2018 - Mar 2019 |
Volatility
Volatility Chart
The chart below shows the rolling one-month volatility.
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Diversification
Diversification Metrics
Number of Effective Assets
The portfolio contains 4 assets, with an effective number of assets of 3.23, reflecting the diversification based on asset allocation. Your capital is well-distributed across most of your holdings, with only mild concentration in a few names. True diversification also depends on the correlations between assets — check the diversification ratio below.
Diversification Ratio
1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 10Y | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Diversification Ratio | 1.41 | 1.43 | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.52 |
The portfolio has a diversification ratio of 1.52, in line with the typical range across portfolios. There's room to improve by adding less correlated assets.
40/45/15 correlation to the S&P 500 Index
| Correlation | |
|---|---|
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period | 0.76 |
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period | 0.78 |
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period | 0.80 |
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period | 0.80 |
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Nov 18, 2004 | 0.81 |
Benchmark Correlations
Correlation vs. S&P 500 Index. VTSMX has the highest benchmark correlation at 0.99, while VIPSX has the lowest at -0.11.
Asset Correlations Table
Find what 40/45/15 is missing
See which holdings overlap, where 40/45/15 is concentrated, and which low-correlation assets could fill the gaps.
Analyze Diversification