VTIVX vs. GBTC

Last updated Jun 9, 2026

VTIVX (Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund) and GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF) are both funds - VTIVX is a Target Retirement Date fund managed by Vanguard, while GBTC is a Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark Rate Index. Over the past 10 years, VTIVX returned 10.91%/yr vs 49.25%/yr for GBTC. At a 0.26 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. VTIVX charges 0.08%/yr vs 1.50%/yr for GBTC.

Performance

VTIVX vs. GBTC - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund (VTIVX) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, VTIVX achieves a 7.80% return, which is significantly higher than GBTC's -28.07% return. Over the past 10 years, VTIVX has underperformed GBTC with an annualized return of 10.91%, while GBTC has yielded a comparatively higher 49.25% annualized return.

VTIVX

• 1D: -2.58%
• 1M: -0.77%
• YTD: 7.80%
• 6M: 8.61%
• 1Y: 21.54%
• 3Y*: 17.21%
• 5Y*: 8.80%
• 10Y*: 10.91%

GBTC

• 1D: 5.06%
• 1M: -21.09%
• YTD: -28.07%
• 6M: -30.74%
• 1Y: -40.20%
• 3Y*: 53.71%
• 5Y*: 10.31%
• 10Y*: 49.25%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

VTIVX vs. GBTC - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
VTIVX Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund	7.80%	20.01%	13.68%	19.72%	-17.38%	16.16%	16.31%	24.94%	-7.89%	19.16%
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF	-28.07%	-7.65%	113.81%	317.61%	-75.80%	7.03%	290.72%	106.56%	-82.10%	1,787.72%

Correlation

The correlation between VTIVX and GBTC is 0.48, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.48
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.37
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.44
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.28
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since May 4, 2015	0.26

Over the past year, VTIVX and GBTC have become more correlated (0.48) than their long-term average of 0.26, meaning their price movements have been converging.

Return for Risk

VTIVX vs. GBTC — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

VTIVX

VTIVX Risk / Return Rank: 53
VTIVX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 52
VTIVX Sortino Ratio Rank: 48
VTIVX Omega Ratio Rank: 51
VTIVX Calmar Ratio Rank: 53
VTIVX Martin Ratio Rank: 62

GBTC

GBTC Risk / Return Rank: 2
GBTC Sharpe Ratio Rank: 2
GBTC Sortino Ratio Rank: 2
GBTC Omega Ratio Rank: 2
GBTC Calmar Ratio Rank: 3
GBTC Martin Ratio Rank: 2

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

VTIVX vs. GBTC - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund (VTIVX) and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	VTIVX	GBTC	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	2.06	-0.91	+2.97
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	2.83	-1.28	+4.11
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.38	0.86	+0.52
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	2.69	-0.77	+3.46
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	11.85	-1.38	+13.23
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

VTIVX vs. GBTC - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current VTIVX Sharpe Ratio is 2.06, which is higher than the GBTC Sharpe Ratio of -0.91. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of VTIVX and GBTC, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	VTIVX	GBTC	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	2.06	-0.91	+2.97
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.65	0.17	+0.49
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.74	0.60	+0.14
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	0.54	0.65	-0.11

Drawdowns

VTIVX vs. GBTC - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum VTIVX drawdown since its inception was -51.69%, smaller than the maximum GBTC drawdown of -89.91%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for VTIVX and GBTC.

Drawdown Indicators

	VTIVX	GBTC	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-51.69%	-89.91%	+38.22%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-8.30%	-52.45%	+44.15%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-13.40%	-52.45%	+39.05%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-25.10%	-85.42%	+60.32%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-31.42%	-89.91%	+58.49%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-2.95%	-50.05%	+47.10%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-6.33%	-43.44%	+37.11%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	1.88%	29.16%	-27.28%

Volatility

VTIVX vs. GBTC - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund (VTIVX) is 3.88%, while Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) has a volatility of 11.75%. This indicates that VTIVX experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than GBTC based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	VTIVX	GBTC	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	3.88%	11.75%	-7.87%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	8.81%	34.55%	-25.74%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	10.85%	44.19%	-33.34%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	13.54%	62.40%	-48.86%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	14.81%	82.22%	-67.41%

VTIVX vs. GBTC - Expense Ratio Comparison

VTIVX has a 0.08% expense ratio, which is lower than GBTC's 1.50% expense ratio.

Dividends

VTIVX vs. GBTC - Dividend Comparison

VTIVX's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.31%, while GBTC has not paid dividends to shareholders.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	5.61%	0.00%	0.00%
VTIVX Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund	2.31%	2.50%	2.36%	2.27%	2.75%	15.40%	1.90%	2.23%	2.52%	0.04%	2.47%	3.29%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both VTIVX and GBTC in my portfolio?

VTIVX and GBTC have a correlation of 0.48, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, VTIVX or GBTC?

GBTC has higher volatility (11.75%) compared to VTIVX (3.88%). In terms of maximum drawdown, VTIVX dropped -51.69% vs GBTC's -89.91%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

VTIVX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.06 vs -0.91), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.