VFORX vs. VTHRX

Last updated Jun 9, 2026

VFORX (Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund) and VTHRX (Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund) are both Target Retirement Date funds from Vanguard. Over the past 10 years, VFORX returned 10.25%/yr vs 8.58%/yr for VTHRX. With a 1.00 correlation, they move nearly in lockstep. Both charge a 0.08% expense ratio.

Performance

VFORX vs. VTHRX - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund (VFORX) and Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund (VTHRX). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, VFORX achieves a 7.09% return, which is significantly higher than VTHRX's 5.62% return. Over the past 10 years, VFORX has outperformed VTHRX with an annualized return of 10.25%, while VTHRX has yielded a comparatively lower 8.58% annualized return.

VFORX

• 1D: -2.37%
• 1M: -0.74%
• YTD: 7.09%
• 6M: 7.87%
• 1Y: 19.89%
• 3Y*: 16.11%
• 5Y*: 8.09%
• 10Y*: 10.25%

VTHRX

• 1D: -1.95%
• 1M: -0.67%
• YTD: 5.62%
• 6M: 6.29%
• 1Y: 16.54%
• 3Y*: 13.56%
• 5Y*: 6.47%
• 10Y*: 8.58%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

VFORX vs. VTHRX - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
VFORX Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund	7.09%	18.77%	12.90%	18.56%	-17.00%	14.55%	15.48%	23.86%	-7.32%	18.45%
VTHRX Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund	5.62%	16.25%	10.43%	16.24%	-16.28%	11.37%	14.11%	21.08%	-5.85%	15.24%

Correlation

The correlation between VFORX and VTHRX is 1.00 - these two move nearly in lockstep. At this level, holding both provides almost no diversification benefit. If you already own one, adding the other does little to reduce portfolio risk.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	1.00
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.99
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.99
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	1.00
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since Jun 7, 2006	1.00

The correlation between VFORX and VTHRX has been stable across timeframes, ranging from 0.99 to 1.00 - a consistent structural relationship.

VFORX vs. VTHRX - Sectors Allocation Comparison

Sectors	VFORX	VTHRX
Technology	27.4%	27.4%
Financial Services	16.1%	16.0%
Industrials	12.3%	12.3%
Consumer Cyclical	9.4%	9.4%
Healthcare	8.3%	8.3%
Communication Services	8.0%	8.0%
Consumer Defensive	4.8%	4.8%
Energy	4.3%	4.3%
Basic Materials	4.3%	4.2%
Utilities	2.7%	2.7%
Real Estate	2.5%	2.5%

Return for Risk

VFORX vs. VTHRX — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

VFORX

VFORX Risk / Return Rank: 53
VFORX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 52
VFORX Sortino Ratio Rank: 48
VFORX Omega Ratio Rank: 52
VFORX Calmar Ratio Rank: 52
VFORX Martin Ratio Rank: 61

VTHRX

VTHRX Risk / Return Rank: 52
VTHRX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 51
VTHRX Sortino Ratio Rank: 49
VTHRX Omega Ratio Rank: 53
VTHRX Calmar Ratio Rank: 49
VTHRX Martin Ratio Rank: 59

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

VFORX vs. VTHRX - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund (VFORX) and Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund (VTHRX). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	VFORX	VTHRX	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	2.05	2.04	+0.01
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	2.83	2.85	-0.02
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	1.38	1.38	0.00
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	2.67	2.59	+0.08
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	11.72	11.30	+0.42
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

VFORX vs. VTHRX - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current VFORX Sharpe Ratio is 2.05, which is comparable to the VTHRX Sharpe Ratio of 2.04. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of VFORX and VTHRX, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	VFORX	VTHRX	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	2.05	2.04	+0.01
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.65	0.62	+0.03
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.75	0.76	-0.01
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	0.49	0.50	0.00

Drawdowns

VFORX vs. VTHRX - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum VFORX drawdown since its inception was -51.63%, roughly equal to the maximum VTHRX drawdown of -49.57%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for VFORX and VTHRX.

Drawdown Indicators

	VFORX	VTHRX	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-51.63%	-49.57%	-2.06%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-7.70%	-6.56%	-1.14%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-12.12%	-9.64%	-2.48%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-24.32%	-22.75%	-1.57%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-29.35%	-24.86%	-4.49%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-2.75%	-2.25%	-0.50%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-6.77%	-6.18%	-0.59%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	1.75%	1.50%	+0.25%

Volatility

VFORX vs. VTHRX - Volatility Comparison

Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund (VFORX) has a higher volatility of 3.62% compared to Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund (VTHRX) at 3.07%. This indicates that VFORX's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than VTHRX based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	VFORX	VTHRX	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	3.62%	3.07%	+0.55%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	8.17%	6.85%	+1.32%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	10.04%	8.34%	+1.70%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	12.47%	10.40%	+2.07%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	13.69%	11.27%	+2.42%

VFORX vs. VTHRX - Expense Ratio Comparison

Both VFORX and VTHRX have an expense ratio of 0.08%, making them cost-effective options compared to the broader market, where average expense ratios typically range from 0.3% to 0.9%.

Dividends

VFORX vs. VTHRX - Dividend Comparison

VFORX's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.58%, less than VTHRX's 3.82% yield.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
VFORX Vanguard Target Retirement 2040 Fund	2.58%	2.77%	2.86%	2.38%	2.60%	20.68%	2.06%	2.28%	2.58%	0.04%	2.40%	2.99%
VTHRX Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund	3.82%	4.03%	3.63%	2.59%	2.53%	17.56%	2.56%	2.38%	2.71%	0.06%	2.38%	3.72%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both VFORX and VTHRX in my portfolio?

With a correlation of 1.00, VFORX and VTHRX move almost identically. Holding both adds very little diversification - you're essentially doubling your position in the same market segment. Choosing one is usually more capital-efficient.

Which is riskier, VFORX or VTHRX?

VFORX has higher volatility (3.62%) compared to VTHRX (3.07%). In terms of maximum drawdown, VFORX dropped -51.63% vs VTHRX's -49.57%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

VFORX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.05 vs 2.04), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.