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TMF vs. EEM
Performance
Return for Risk
Drawdowns
Volatility
Dividends

TMF vs. EEM

Last updated Jun 9, 2026

TMF (Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF) and EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) are both exchange-traded funds - TMF is a Leveraged Bonds fund tracking the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while EEM is a Emerging Markets Diversified fund tracking the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Net). Both are passively managed. Over the past 10 years, TMF returned -17.04%/yr vs 9.37%/yr for EEM. At a correlation of -0.20, they often move in opposite directions. TMF charges 1.01%/yr vs 0.72%/yr for EEM.

Performance

TMF vs. EEM - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

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Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, TMF achieves a -8.42% return, which is significantly lower than EEM's 20.18% return. Over the past 10 years, TMF has underperformed EEM with an annualized return of -17.04%, while EEM has yielded a comparatively higher 9.37% annualized return.

TMF

1D
-1.45%
1M
-4.55%
YTD
-8.42%
6M
-10.21%
1Y
-2.46%
3Y*
-21.29%
5Y*
-31.41%
10Y*
-17.04%

EEM

1D
1.80%
1M
-3.22%
YTD
20.18%
6M
22.10%
1Y
43.51%
3Y*
20.79%
5Y*
5.98%
10Y*
9.37%
*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

TMF vs. EEM - Yearly Performance Comparison

2026 (YTD)202520242023202220212020201920182017
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF		-8.42%-2.94%-35.95%-13.01%-72.60%-19.80%39.02%34.75%-11.01%22.72%
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF		20.18%33.98%6.49%8.95%-20.56%-3.63%17.02%18.22%-15.31%37.26%

Correlation

The correlation between TMF and EEM is 0.24, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

Correlation
Correlation (1Y)
Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

0.24

Correlation (3Y)
Calculated over the trailing 3-year period

0.16

Correlation (5Y)
Calculated over the trailing 5-year period

0.06

Correlation (10Y)
Calculated over the trailing 10-year period

-0.05

Correlation (All Time)
Calculated using the full available price history since Apr 16, 2009

-0.20

The correlation between TMF and EEM shifts across timeframes, from -0.20 (all time) to 0.24 (1 year), reflecting how their relationship changes across market environments.

TMF vs. EEM - Sectors Allocation Comparison

Sectors
TMF
EEM

Financial Services

18.4%
17.5%

Basic Materials

-

6.1%

Communication Services

-

5.7%

Consumer Cyclical

-

8.1%

Consumer Defensive

-

2.7%

Energy

-

3.3%

Healthcare

-

2.5%

Industrials

-

6.2%

Real Estate

-

0.9%

Technology

-

43.6%

Utilities

-

2.0%

Financial Services

TMF
18.4%
EEM
17.5%

Basic Materials

TMF

-

EEM
6.1%

Communication Services

TMF

-

EEM
5.7%

Consumer Cyclical

TMF

-

EEM
8.1%

Consumer Defensive

TMF

-

EEM
2.7%

Energy

TMF

-

EEM
3.3%

Healthcare

TMF

-

EEM
2.5%

Industrials

TMF

-

EEM
6.2%

Real Estate

TMF

-

EEM
0.9%

Technology

TMF

-

EEM
43.6%

Utilities

TMF

-

EEM
2.0%

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Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

Often compared with TMF:
TMF vs. TLTTMF vs. TMVTMF vs. UPROTMF vs. TQQQTMF vs. TYDTMF vs. EDVTMF vs. ^TNX
Often compared with EEM:
EEM vs. VWOEEM vs. SPYEEM vs. IEMGEEM vs. IS3N.DEEEM vs. VXUSEEM vs. EEMSEEM vs. SPEM

Return for Risk

TMF vs. EEM — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.
TMF
TMF Risk / Return Rank: 88
Overall Rank
TMF Sharpe Ratio Rank: 88
Sharpe Ratio Rank
TMF Sortino Ratio Rank: 99
Sortino Ratio Rank
TMF Omega Ratio Rank: 99
Omega Ratio Rank
TMF Calmar Ratio Rank: 88
Calmar Ratio Rank
TMF Martin Ratio Rank: 88
Martin Ratio Rank
EEM
EEM Risk / Return Rank: 7070
Overall Rank
EEM Sharpe Ratio Rank: 7070
Sharpe Ratio Rank
EEM Sortino Ratio Rank: 6464
Sortino Ratio Rank
EEM Omega Ratio Rank: 7373
Omega Ratio Rank
EEM Calmar Ratio Rank: 7171
Calmar Ratio Rank
EEM Martin Ratio Rank: 7272
Martin Ratio Rank
The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

TMF vs. EEM - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) and iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

TMFEEMDifference
Sharpe ratioReturn per unit of total volatility
-0.09
2.07

-2.16

Sortino ratioReturn per unit of downside risk
0.07
2.66

-2.59

Omega ratioGain probability vs. loss probability

1.01

1.39

-0.38

Calmar ratioReturn relative to maximum drawdown

-0.09

3.23

-3.33

Martin ratioReturn relative to average drawdown

-0.21

12.20

-12.41

Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

TMF vs. EEM - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current TMF Sharpe Ratio is -0.09, which is lower than the EEM Sharpe Ratio of 2.07. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of TMF and EEM, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

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Sharpe Ratios by Period

TMFEEMDifference

Sharpe Ratio (1Y)

Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

-0.09

2.07

-2.16

Sharpe Ratio (5Y)

Calculated over the trailing 5-year period

-0.68

0.31

-0.99

Sharpe Ratio (10Y)

Calculated over the trailing 10-year period

-0.39

0.46

-0.85

Sharpe Ratio (All Time)

Calculated using the full available price history

-0.14

0.37

-0.51

Drawdowns

TMF vs. EEM - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum TMF drawdown since its inception was -92.89%, which is greater than EEM's maximum drawdown of -66.43%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for TMF and EEM.

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Drawdown Indicators

TMFEEMDifference

Max Drawdown

Largest peak-to-trough decline

-92.89%

-66.43%

-26.46%

Max Drawdown (1Y)

Largest decline over 1 year

-26.51%

-13.52%

-12.99%

Max Drawdown (3Y)

Largest decline over 3 years

-56.31%

-17.29%

-39.02%

Max Drawdown (5Y)

Largest decline over 5 years

-88.81%

-37.49%

-51.32%

Max Drawdown (10Y)

Largest decline over 10 years

-92.89%

-39.82%

-53.07%

Current Drawdown

Current decline from peak

-92.42%

-7.13%

-85.29%

Average Drawdown

Average peak-to-trough decline

-43.66%

-16.01%

-27.65%

Ulcer Index

Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks

11.70%

3.58%

+8.12%

Volatility

TMF vs. EEM - Volatility Comparison

The current volatility for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) is 7.77%, while iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has a volatility of 10.60%. This indicates that TMF experiences smaller price fluctuations and is considered to be less risky than EEM based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

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Volatility by Period

TMFEEMDifference

Volatility (1M)

Calculated over the trailing 1-month period

7.77%

10.60%

-2.83%

Volatility (6M)

Calculated over the trailing 6-month period

19.06%

18.87%

+0.19%

Volatility (1Y)

Calculated over the trailing 1-year period

28.25%

21.19%

+7.06%

Volatility (5Y)

Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized

46.72%

19.16%

+27.56%

Volatility (10Y)

Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized

43.92%

20.62%

+23.30%

TMF vs. EEM - Expense Ratio Comparison

TMF has a 1.01% expense ratio, which is higher than EEM's 0.72% expense ratio.

Dividends

TMF vs. EEM - Dividend Comparison

TMF's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 4.26%, more than EEM's 1.85% yield.

PositionTTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015
EEM
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF		1.85%2.22%2.43%2.63%2.50%1.99%1.45%2.76%2.24%1.89%1.89%2.49%
TMF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF		4.26%4.06%4.29%2.82%1.62%0.13%2.23%0.94%1.49%0.41%0.00%0.00%

Frequently Asked Questions

TMF and EEM have a correlation of 0.24, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

EEM has higher volatility (10.60%) compared to TMF (7.77%). In terms of maximum drawdown, TMF dropped -92.89% vs EEM's -66.43%.

On 10-year performance, EEM leads with 9.37% vs -17.04% for TMF. On fees, EEM is cheaper at 0.72% per year. On volatility, TMF has been the lower-risk option at 7.77%. The better choice depends on whether you care most about return, fees, risk, or income.

Over the 10-year period, EEM has performed better with a 9.37% return vs -17.04%. Past performance does not guarantee future results, so compare this with risk, fees, and fund exposure.

EEM is cheaper with a 0.72% expense ratio, compared with 1.01% for TMF.

TMF has the higher dividend yield at 4.26%, compared with 1.85% for EEM.

TMF is categorized as Leveraged Bonds, while EEM is Emerging Markets Diversified. TMF tracks ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (300%), while EEM tracks MSCI Emerging Markets Index (Net). They also come from different issuers: Direxion and iShares. Their fees differ too: 1.01% for TMF and 0.72% for EEM.

EEM currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.07 vs -0.09), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.

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