GBTC vs. VTIVX

Last updated Jun 9, 2026

GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF) and VTIVX (Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund) are both funds - GBTC is a Cryptocurrency fund tracking the CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark Rate Index, while VTIVX is a Target Retirement Date fund managed by Vanguard. Over the past 10 years, GBTC returned 49.25%/yr vs 10.91%/yr for VTIVX. At a 0.26 correlation, their price movements are largely independent. GBTC charges 1.50%/yr vs 0.08%/yr for VTIVX.

Performance

GBTC vs. VTIVX - Performance Comparison

The chart below illustrates the hypothetical performance of a $10,000 investment in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) and Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund (VTIVX). The values are adjusted to include any dividend payments, if applicable.

Returns By Period

In the year-to-date period, GBTC achieves a -28.07% return, which is significantly lower than VTIVX's 7.80% return. Over the past 10 years, GBTC has outperformed VTIVX with an annualized return of 49.25%, while VTIVX has yielded a comparatively lower 10.91% annualized return.

GBTC

• 1D: 5.06%
• 1M: -21.09%
• YTD: -28.07%
• 6M: -30.74%
• 1Y: -40.20%
• 3Y*: 53.71%
• 5Y*: 10.31%
• 10Y*: 49.25%

VTIVX

• 1D: -2.58%
• 1M: -0.77%
• YTD: 7.80%
• 6M: 8.61%
• 1Y: 21.54%
• 3Y*: 17.21%
• 5Y*: 8.80%
• 10Y*: 10.91%

*Multi-year figures are annualized to reflect compound growth (CAGR)

GBTC vs. VTIVX - Yearly Performance Comparison

	2026 (YTD)	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF	-28.07%	-7.65%	113.81%	317.61%	-75.80%	7.03%	290.72%	106.56%	-82.10%	1,787.72%
VTIVX Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund	7.80%	20.01%	13.68%	19.72%	-17.38%	16.16%	16.31%	24.94%	-7.89%	19.16%

Correlation

The correlation between GBTC and VTIVX is 0.48, which is low. Their price movements are largely independent, making them effective diversification partners.

	Correlation
Correlation (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	0.48
Correlation (3Y) Calculated over the trailing 3-year period	0.37
Correlation (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.44
Correlation (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.28
Correlation (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history since May 4, 2015	0.26

Over the past year, GBTC and VTIVX have become more correlated (0.48) than their long-term average of 0.26, meaning their price movements have been converging.

Return for Risk

GBTC vs. VTIVX — Risk / Return Rank

Compare risk-adjusted metric ranks to identify better-performing investments over the past 12 months.

GBTC

GBTC Risk / Return Rank: 2
GBTC Sharpe Ratio Rank: 2
GBTC Sortino Ratio Rank: 2
GBTC Omega Ratio Rank: 2
GBTC Calmar Ratio Rank: 3
GBTC Martin Ratio Rank: 2

VTIVX

VTIVX Risk / Return Rank: 53
VTIVX Sharpe Ratio Rank: 52
VTIVX Sortino Ratio Rank: 48
VTIVX Omega Ratio Rank: 51
VTIVX Calmar Ratio Rank: 53
VTIVX Martin Ratio Rank: 62

The rank (0–100) shows how this investment's returns compare to the risk taken. Higher = better. Based on the past 12 months of data, combining Sharpe, Sortino, and other metrics used by quantitative funds and institutional investors.

GBTC vs. VTIVX - Risk-Adjusted Trends Comparison

This table presents a comparison of risk-adjusted performance metrics for Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) and Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund (VTIVX). Risk-adjusted metrics are performance indicators that assess an investment's returns in relation to its risk, enabling a more accurate comparison of different investment options.

	GBTC	VTIVX	Difference
Sharpe ratio: Return per unit of total volatility	-0.91	2.06	-2.97
Sortino ratio: Return per unit of downside risk	-1.28	2.83	-4.11
Omega ratio: Gain probability vs. loss probability	0.86	1.38	-0.52
Calmar ratio: Return relative to maximum drawdown	-0.77	2.69	-3.46
Martin ratio: Return relative to average drawdown	-1.38	11.85	-13.23
Data is calculated on a 1-year rolling basis and updated daily. The trend shows the change in the indicator over the past month.

GBTC vs. VTIVX - Sharpe Ratio Comparison

The current GBTC Sharpe Ratio is -0.91, which is lower than the VTIVX Sharpe Ratio of 2.06. The chart below compares the historical Sharpe Ratios of GBTC and VTIVX, calculated using daily returns over the previous 12 months. A higher Sharpe Ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance relative to the risk-free rate.

Sharpe Ratios by Period

	GBTC	VTIVX	Difference
Sharpe Ratio (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	-0.91	2.06	-2.97
Sharpe Ratio (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period	0.17	0.65	-0.49
Sharpe Ratio (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period	0.60	0.74	-0.14
Sharpe Ratio (All Time) Calculated using the full available price history	0.65	0.54	+0.11

Drawdowns

GBTC vs. VTIVX - Drawdown Comparison

The maximum GBTC drawdown since its inception was -89.91%, which is greater than VTIVX's maximum drawdown of -51.69%. Use the drawdown chart below to compare losses from any high point for GBTC and VTIVX.

Drawdown Indicators

	GBTC	VTIVX	Difference
Max Drawdown Largest peak-to-trough decline	-89.91%	-51.69%	-38.22%
Max Drawdown (1Y) Largest decline over 1 year	-52.45%	-8.30%	-44.15%
Max Drawdown (3Y) Largest decline over 3 years	-52.45%	-13.40%	-39.05%
Max Drawdown (5Y) Largest decline over 5 years	-85.42%	-25.10%	-60.32%
Max Drawdown (10Y) Largest decline over 10 years	-89.91%	-31.42%	-58.49%
Current Drawdown Current decline from peak	-50.05%	-2.95%	-47.10%
Average Drawdown Average peak-to-trough decline	-43.44%	-6.33%	-37.11%
Ulcer Index Depth and duration of drawdowns from previous peaks	29.16%	1.88%	+27.28%

Volatility

GBTC vs. VTIVX - Volatility Comparison

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) has a higher volatility of 11.75% compared to Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund (VTIVX) at 3.88%. This indicates that GBTC's price experiences larger fluctuations and is considered to be riskier than VTIVX based on this measure. The chart below showcases a comparison of their rolling one-month volatility.

Volatility by Period

	GBTC	VTIVX	Difference
Volatility (1M) Calculated over the trailing 1-month period	11.75%	3.88%	+7.87%
Volatility (6M) Calculated over the trailing 6-month period	34.55%	8.81%	+25.74%
Volatility (1Y) Calculated over the trailing 1-year period	44.19%	10.85%	+33.34%
Volatility (5Y) Calculated over the trailing 5-year period, annualized	62.40%	13.54%	+48.86%
Volatility (10Y) Calculated over the trailing 10-year period, annualized	82.22%	14.81%	+67.41%

GBTC vs. VTIVX - Expense Ratio Comparison

GBTC has a 1.50% expense ratio, which is higher than VTIVX's 0.08% expense ratio.

Dividends

GBTC vs. VTIVX - Dividend Comparison

GBTC has not paid dividends to shareholders, while VTIVX's dividend yield for the trailing twelve months is around 2.31%.

Position	TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	5.61%	0.00%	0.00%
VTIVX Vanguard Target Retirement 2045 Fund	2.31%	2.50%	2.36%	2.27%	2.75%	15.40%	1.90%	2.23%	2.52%	0.04%	2.47%	3.29%

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I hold both GBTC and VTIVX in my portfolio?

GBTC and VTIVX have a correlation of 0.48, meaning they provide meaningful diversification benefit when combined. Depending on your allocation goals, holding both could reduce overall portfolio risk.

Which is riskier, GBTC or VTIVX?

GBTC has higher volatility (11.75%) compared to VTIVX (3.88%). In terms of maximum drawdown, GBTC dropped -89.91% vs VTIVX's -51.69%.

Which has better risk-adjusted returns?

VTIVX currently has the higher Sharpe Ratio (2.06 vs -0.91), meaning it's delivered slightly more return per unit of risk over the trailing 12 months. However, this ranking shifts over time - use the Risk/Return Score above for a more comprehensive view that combines Sharpe, Sortino, and other measures used by quantitative funds.